Crude: Can we see more down? Support 52.12. 30-Jan-2020

CMP: 52.8; Res: 54.38/59.64; Sup: 52.12
If crude breaks 52.12, we can see 51.38-49.43 first and further 48.22, 46.28-45.07.

Crude Analysis: Bull OR Bear? 21-Jan-2020

22-Jan-2020
Complex correction?

21-Jan-2020
CMP: 57.90; Res: 59.65; Sup: 57.34
If crude supported by 57.34, we can see 59.64 again and further 60.5, 61.48, 62.45, 63.19.
If crude breaks 57.35, we can see 56.45, 55.89, 55.13, 54.92...
Buyers SL 57.34; Sellers SL 59.65

NYMEX: Crude Analysis 13-Oct-2017

CMP 51.55
Res: 52.83
Sup: 51.19(immediate support)/50.14/49.08

Scenario 1(up move): If crude supported by 50.14, we can see 51.73/52.83 and a break of 52.83 we will see 53.88/54.22

Scenario 2(down move):  If crude resisted by 52.83 we will see 50.14 first and 49.08. A break of 49.08 we will see 48.6/45.6/45.05.
I prefer to be on sell side as long as 52.83$ not broken.

IMPORTANT LEVEL: 51.7-51.95.

LONG TERM ANALYSIS OF METALS & ENERGY 14-Apr-2017

 GOLD

 SILVER

CRUDE OIL

 NATURAL GAS

COPPER

Crude Analysis 13-Apr-2017

Update 18-Apr-2017
CMP 53.01
As long as crude resisted by 53.73, I expect to see 52.49 again and further 51.89$.
Strategy: Sell on rise with max sl 53.75 for the above target and further 50.55-49.55.

UPDATE 14-Apr-2017, 6:43 AM IST
CMP 52.87
Res: 53.36/53.73
As per my previous update, crude sell has been activated between 53.1-53.25 and running.

I expect to see 50.55-49.55 in this down move and crude may take support at that level and can bounce back to 53/55 and expecting 58.21-60.00$.

We will see a bigger down move from there towards 30-25$, ultimate tgt can be 16$.



UPDATE 10:03 PM IST
CMP 52.92
Res: 53.36/53.73

 As long Crude resisted by 53.36/53.73, I would like see the below targets.
Strategy: Sell crude between 53.1-53.25, SL 53.37/53.78 max, tgts: [52.67], 52.3, [51.64-51.49], 50.59, [50.01], 48.55.


CMP: 55.99
Res: 53.73/.89
Sup: 52.67

As long as 53.73 resists, I remain bearish in Crude.

Strategy: Sell on rise between 53.3-53.6, Max SL 53.74, TGTs: [52.67], 52.16, [51.28], 50.40, [49.6], 49.01, [47.-05].

All the best.

Crude Analysis 10-Apr-2017

13-Apr-2017

CMP 53.46
Res: 53.89

Are we ready for fall?

As you can see in the H1, H4 charts, we could see negative divergences. Does this warns for the fall in Crude?

Let us wait n watch.




11-Apr-2017
CMP: 53.14
Res: 55.23
Sup: 51.40

As per the Hourly chart, we are in wave 5 of 5. Are we going to see a bigger correction from here? There is no confirmation of reversal yet.

So need to wait and watch for exact reversal for to initiate any shorts.




10-Apr-2017

CMP 52.38
Sup: 47.05/42.19
Res: 55.23

As long as crude supported by 47.05/42.19, I expect to see 55$ first and further 60$, 64.8$.

Trade Idea:
Buy crude on dips between 51.5-51$ with max SL $50.6, for 52.9$ fist and further for the above targets.

NOTE:
1. View valid as long as 47.05 holds.
2. Any break of 42.19, Long term analysis need to be reanalysed.

NYMEX:Crude Analysis 03-Apr-2017

CMP: 50.61
Sup: 47.05 / 42.19
Res: 55.23

If you notice from the below chart, crude reversed from 61.8% level. If crude supported by 47.05, I expect to see 55.23 again and further 60.20, 63.3, 65.22, 68.32$ positionally.

Trade Idea:
Buy crude on dips between 49-48$ if you get, with max n strict SL 47.05 for the above targets.

Crude Analysis 22-Nov-2016

CMP 48.92
Res: 52.21
Sup: 44.85/42.21

As long as 52.21 resists, I expect to see 42.21 again and further 34$.
Important zone to be watched: 48.38-49.85.

Thanks.

Crude Oil Analysis 17-10-2016

26-Oct-2016

CMP 49.31
Res: 52.21
Sup: 42.73

STRATEGY: Sell on Rise.
Max sl 52.23$
TGTs: 48.76, 47.46, 47.14, 46.36, 45.51

NOTE:
Any break of 42.73$, positional sell of will be in place for 38/34$.
Any break of 52.23$, we will see 53/55/59$.

17-10-2016
CMP 50.24, SL 51.68$, tgts: 39.25, 34.4.
CMP 3358, SL 3463, TGTs: 2650, 2293.

Valid till February 21st, 2017 / AS LONG AS SL HOLDS.

Crude 01-Oct-2016

As of  now Crude oil not supporting sellers.
But there is big fight between bulls n bears.

As i have already told, we are in very big correction.

As per the above chart, next res around 51.89/62.89$.
NOTE: WE ARE FORMING BIGGER TRIANGLE TO CLOSE THIS DOWN MOVE, TGT 17-15$ FIXED. BUT WHEN? IS THE QUESTION.
ALREADY ALTERNATE ENERGY IS DEVELOPING, I DON'T KNOW WHICH, JUST AN ASSUMPTION, MAY SUSTAIN FOR 3-5-8-13-21MAX YEARS.

NO CALLS NOW. TRADERS ARE REQUESTED TO ENTER N EXIT BY INTRA STRICT. CAN HOLD IF SPECIFIED.
Thanks.


THIS IS LONG TERM PREDICTION. NOT FOR INTRA/SMALL TRADERS.


PERSONAL TRADE:
SELL  JAN CRUDE: SL: 3503 STRICT, TGT 2555/1689/999.
MY TGT FIXED 999.
go only with 2 minis strict. strict. strict. RR Ratio NEED TO BE CONSIDERED.
THERE MAY BE LITTLE CHANGE IN SL.


THANKS.

WTI Crude Analysis 18-Sep-2016

18-Sep-2016
CMP 43.19
Sup: 39.24(21)

Res: 48.44/49.33/51.64
Small Res: 43.7/44.33/45.46
As long as the above levels resists, I expect to see 42.21, 41.63, 40.35, 39.24, 34-33.55, 32.19, 29.27, 27.48, 26.04 positionally.

13-Sep-2016
http://rajtechnicalanalysis.blogspot.in/2016/09/crude-analysis-13-sep-2016.html

11-Sep-2016
http://rajtechnicalanalysis.blogspot.in/2016/09/crude-analysis-11-sep-2016.html

Res: 48.44/49.33/51.64
Sup: 39.24

As long as crude resisted by 47.89/48.55/49.33/51.64$, I expect to see 41.87, 39.24-38.86, 34-33.55, 32.19, 29.27, 27.48, 26.04 positionally.

Crude Analysis 15-Aug-2016

18-Aug-2016
CMP 47.62
Sup: 46.55$
Res: 49.89$/50$

As long as crude supported by 46.5$, I expect to see 48.1, 48.55, 49.55, 50$ and further 52.2$.
At present, crude looks more bullish.

TRADE IDEA:
Buy crude between 47-46.64, max sl 46.5$ for 48.1...

Important levels: 47.45 (broken), 48.80, 50$

Crude breaking all res levels, and taking support on 20/21 SMA multiple times. Clear break of this needed for sellers.

As I have told earlier, seasonal up move in crude running. Are we heading towards 52/55/57$ before big fall from October 2016?

Let us wait n watch.



15-Aug-2016
Supports: 43.34/41.05/39.21
Res: 49.91/51.64(89)

As long as crude resisted by 49.89, there is high possibility of seeing new low.

But as per seasonality, crude not supports down move now, only after september 30th.

So, there is high possibility of seeing a bigger correction OR big up move towards 52/55/58/60$ from where crude can fall towards 21/16.89$.

OR
as stated earlier, it can also be a triangle, which can last for more years.

Buyers sl 43.21$/39.21$ max.
Sellers SL strict to 51.70$.


NO TRADING SUGGESTIONS FROM MY SIDE.

IMPORTANT LEVELS: 46.7-48.89


CHECK RES/SUPPORT/SL AND TRADE ACCORDINGLY.

Crude Analysis 01-Aug-2016

05-Aug-2016

05-Aug-2016
CMP 41.81
Sup: 39.24/35.23/26.04
Res: 51.64

Crude move is getting more complex.
At present, there are 3 possiblities I could see with Crude.

1. Bottom is in place, and started Long Term Bullish move
2. We are in complex (triangle)/Zigzag Correction
3. Correction hit it's top and we have started the final down move.

As per my analysis, I go with Option 2 (correction).

TRIANGLE
As long as crude resisted by 51.64 and supported by 26.04, we will see multi year correction is in place, and it can take 1-3 years before the final down move.

ZIGZAG
Crude completed wave B and we have started the final up move, which can target 51.64 first and further 52.28/55/62.66.


Will be updating more charts with different scenarios in separate charts soon.

SOME CHARTS ON DIFFERENT SCENARIOS:

Updates

6:24 PM IST

 

Check below for primary Analysis

---

Primary Analysis

03-AUG-2016 8:34 AM IST

CMP 39.74
RES: 40.89/41.87(89)
SUP: 39.24(21)
As long as crude resisted by 40.89$, I expect to see 39.24 again and further 38.87(89), 38.53(55), 38.06(08), 37.66, 36.68.

For any sell SL strict to 40.95/41.95 max.

As per my analysis we are extending in wave 5 of 3(C) Becouse, wave 3 of 3(C) is small.

As per my technicals and seasonality analysis, I expect to see bounce back after this down move as a corrective rally till October.

As usual, I expect to see big drop from October to Feb 2017 for lower targets.
Let us wait n watch how this progresses.

01-AUG-2016

CMP 40.98
SUP:35.26(.21)/26.07(.08)
RES: 51.67(.55)

PRIMARY ANALYSIS:

Targets: 40.1, 37.74, [37.08, 36.28], 35.75, 35.33, [33.55], 31.54, 26.04, 22, 18.34$




Based on monthly chart,
Crude was not able to break thru' the multi year trendline this time. Made high 51.67 and closed below the trend line.
As per this chart, still I like to see lower low around 21, 16.89$ long term.

Based daily chart,
We could see 3 possible scenarios:

1. This correction could be a flat, which will have 3-3-5 wave structure. If this is the case, Crude can make reverse after this down move and make a new high.

2. This correction could be a triangle, which can take a long time to complete and then it will resume its last down move towards min 26.07$.

3. Thi correction has already ended up at 51.67$. If this is the case, direct fall towards 26/21/16.89$.
Have given below the charts of the possible scenarios.

As per my view, we are already in down move and can see lower lows. Will update more updates later.

OTHER CHARTS:

Are we heading to 16.89$ direct?

OR

Multi year correction is in place?

OR

Going to make a new high of 60$.

Last two years worked perfectly.

 http://rajmarketresearchanalysis.blogspot.in/2015/08/wti-crude-positional-analysis-01-aug.html

http://rajmarketresearchanalysis.blogspot.in/2014/08/nymex-crude-positional-down-move-view.html

BTW, there was only single view for past two years.

This year we are having 1 primary and 2 alternative views.

Let us wait n watch, which is going to work.

Crude Analysis 30-Jul-2016

CMP 41.44
As long as crude resisted by 44.4/46.1$, I expect to see
40.55, 40.04, 39.1, 37.74(.89), 35.8(.89), 35.28(.34), 33.55 positionally.
2674(89), 2623(21), 2586(89), 2534, 2480(89), 2431(34), 2286(89), 2175(55).

For any sell max sl 40.55/46.1$, 23001/3123.

Crude Analysis - ONLY CHARTS 29-Jul-2016

Crude Analysis - ONLY CHARTS 29-Jul-2016

NEXT UPDATE: 01-AUG-2016