SILVER — Structure Under Stress (XAGUSD & MCX)

 Date: 05 Feb 2026

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Overview

Silver has experienced a sharp impulsive decline, causing structural damage after a strong prior advance. The current recovery attempt lacks impulsive characteristics and is best treated as corrective, not trend-reversing.

Both XAGUSD (global reference) and MCX Silver (local execution) confirm this view, despite MCX’s known price distortions.

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Structure Position

• Prior advance: Impulsive

• Recent selloff: Impulsive down → confirms trend damage

• Current move: Corrective / overlapping

• No confirmed bullish impulse yet

This is a repair phase, not a fresh trend.

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Market Context

• Volatility remains elevated

• Overlapping candles suggest distribution / corrective behaviour

• Time-based correction is more likely than directional expansion

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Key Zones & Levels

XAGUSD (3H)

Support / Demand

• 78.5 – 80.0 → major demand

• 74.5 – 75.0 → last defence

• 71.5 → breakdown level

Resistance / Supply

• 86.5 – 88.0 → immediate cap

• 93.0 – 95.0 → major corrective ceiling

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MCX SILVER (3H)

(Execution follows XAGUSD direction, not independently)

Support / Demand

• 245,000 – 248,000

• 235,000 – 238,000

• 225,000 → structural base

Resistance / Supply

• 270,000 – 275,000

• 290,000 – 295,000

• 300,000+ → requires full structural repair

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Decision Zones

• XAGUSD 80 / MCX 245k → must hold to avoid renewed decline

• XAGUSD 88 / MCX 275k → must clear for corrective extension

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Invalidation / Risk Levels

• XAGUSD below 71.5 → bearish continuation confirmed

• MCX below 225k → structural breakdown

• Acceptance above XAGUSD 95 / MCX 300k → current view invalid

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Expected Behaviour

• Choppy, overlapping price action

• Sharp moves with quick reversals

• Structure favours patience over prediction

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Conclusion

Silver remains structurally damaged after an impulsive selloff.
Current recovery is corrective.
Directional clarity only comes outside the defined zones.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XAGUSD/lDEheCkY-SILVER-Structure-Under-Stress-XAGUSD-MCX/

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