USDCAD — Weekly Structural Update

 Corrective Pullback Context | Support Holding

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🔍 Overview

USDCAD is currently undergoing a corrective pullback after failing to sustain above long-term resistance. Price is now sitting at a descending trendline, which limits immediate downside continuation and introduces the possibility of a counter-trend bounce.

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🧩 Structure Position

• Long-term uptrend from the 2011 low remains intact

• Price is below major resistance (1.4834)

• Recent weakness appears corrective, not impulsive

• Immediate downside is constrained by trendline support

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🌐 Market Context

Pullbacks into well-defined trendline support often lead to temporary relief rallies before broader corrective patterns complete. This suggests a B-wave type advance is possible, followed by another corrective leg lower — provided price remains capped below resistance.

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🎯 Key Zones & Levels

• Major resistance:

  • 1.4834

• Near-term support:

  • Descending trendline (current holding zone)

• Corrective upside (contextual):

  • 1.4000–1.4200 zone

• Deeper corrective supports (if weakness expands):

  • 1.3450

  • 1.2600–1.2700

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📈 Expected Behaviour

• Immediate downside continuation is limited while price holds the trendline

• A counter-trend bounce is possible from current levels

• Any upside is expected to remain corrective unless acceptance occurs above 1.4834

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⚠️ Invalidation / Risk Levels

• Sustained acceptance above 1.4834 would invalidate the corrective bias

• A decisive break below the trendline + 1.3450 would indicate a larger corrective phase

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🧠 Conclusion

USDCAD is in a corrective pullback phase within a broader uptrend. With price holding at trendline support, immediate downside appears limited. A B-wave type bounce remains a reasonable possibility, followed by further corrective development — as long as the market remains capped below 1.4834.

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This analysis is based on market structure and price behaviour, not prediction.

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https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USDCAD/xXHOWRrN-USDCAD-Weekly-Structural-Update/

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