Structure first. Action later.
STRUCTURE • CYCLES • TIME
No cycle-degree structural transition has been detected this week.
The broader risk framework remains stable across assets. Recent weekly price action continues to reflect corrective digestion rather than fresh impulse initiation.
This assessment remains aligned with the published Yearly Structural Map — 2026.
Week 5 structural check confirms continuity, not transition.
Higher Timeframe Perspective
MCX Gold remains within a broader bullish higher-timeframe structure.
This is a structural update, not a directional call.
The purpose of this post is to document where price currently stands within the larger trend, especially after the recent sharp expansion and volatility.
This update is intended to anchor expectations and avoid short-term emotional interpretation.
XAUUSD remains within a broader bullish structure on the higher timeframe.
This post is a weekend structure update, not a trading call or short-term forecast.
The objective is to assess where Gold currently stands within the larger trend, particularly after the recent sharp expansion.
This update is intended to anchor expectations and reduce emotional noise, as markets often pause after such moves.
(EwavesJournal View)
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
This is a structural update on NIFTY based on the daily timeframe. This is not a trading call, but a higher-timeframe structure assessment.
(XAGUSD & MCX – EwavesJournal View)
This is a structural update on Silver based on the 3-hour timeframe, covering both XAGUSD and MCX Silver. This is not a trading call, but a higher-timeframe structure assessment.
This is a structural update on Gold based on the 3-hour timeframe, covering both XAUUSD and MCX Gold. This is not a trading call, but a higher-timeframe structure assessment.
Silver continues to trade in a strong bullish trend. The recent sharp rise resulted in a near-vertical move, which naturally requires cooling through consolidation or corrective pullbacks.
Price remains well above its major breakout base, confirming that the broader bullish structure is intact.
Gold continues to trade in a well-defined long-term uptrend. The recent pullback should be viewed as a healthy corrective phase following a near-vertical advance, rather than a trend reversal.
Price remains inside the rising acceleration channel, which confirms that the broader bullish structure is intact.
After strong impulsive movement, markets often cool through consolidation or controlled pullbacks. This phase helps reset momentum and typically shakes out weak positions before the next directional move.
Silver continues to trade within a well-defined rising channel, maintaining higher highs and higher lows. Price action remains orderly, confirming trend strength, though momentum is now approaching an extension zone.
Clarification: current behaviour suggests consolidation / shallow correction, not a reversal.
Gold continues to trade within a clearly defined rising channel, maintaining a strong bullish structure on the 3H timeframe. Price action remains orderly, with higher highs and higher lows intact.
The recent sharp rally has pushed Gold into a momentum extension zone, where price is now interacting with the upper boundary of the channel and Fibonacci extension levels. This typically signals temporary exhaustion, not a trend reversal.
The Gold/Silver ratio on the monthly timeframe provides valuable insight into the relative strength cycle between gold and silver. Rather than focusing on absolute price direction, this ratio highlights periods of outperformance and underperformance, which often unfold in large, clean structures.
Silver has shown notable relative strength compared to Gold, producing clean impulsive advances and respecting a rising channel on the 3-hour timeframe. The recent breakout above the 102 region marked a key structural shift.
Price is now approaching the upper boundary of the channel, a common area for temporary pauses after strong rallies.
Gold remains in a structurally strong uptrend on the 3-hour timeframe, respecting a rising price channel that has guided price action for several sessions. The recent rally has been sharp and directional, indicating strong underlying demand.
However, price is now approaching the upper boundary of this channel, a zone where momentum often pauses rather than immediately reverses.
Gold remains firmly positioned within a long-term rising structure that has guided price action for several years. The primary trend channel continues to hold, reinforcing the broader bullish framework.
Structure First. Levels as Risk. No Forecasts.
This post expands on the MarketOmorph Weekly Structural Bulletin.
The bulletin provides a compressed structural status.
This blog explains why those structures still matter and how to read the levels.
This is a structural framework, not a prediction.
Natural Gas (XNGUSD) has once again reminded market participants why it is one of the most volatile and emotionally charged commodities. After a sharp decline, price has reacted strongly from a key support zone, raising an obvious question:
Is this a bottom — or just another bounce inside a broader correction?
This post focuses on structure, levels, and invalidation, not prediction.
The broader structure of Natural Gas remains corrective.
The sharp rally from the 1.60 area to above 5.00 was primarily a mean-reversion and short-covering move, not a confirmed impulsive trend change.
Since then, price action has been characterized by:
Wide swings
Overlapping legs
Sharp rallies followed by deep retracements
This is typical range and correction behaviour, not trend expansion.
Price recently declined into a high-confluence support area:
0.707 – 0.786 Fibonacci retracement
(~2.67 – 2.38)
Confluence with a rising structural trendline
Prior demand zone
The reaction from this zone was immediate and sharp, which is technically meaningful.
This validates the zone as active demand.
✔️ Deep retracement into a key Fibonacci cluster
✔️ Structural support alignment
✔️ Sharp rejection instead of slow acceptance
✔️ Behaviour consistent with Natural Gas bottoms (fast reactions)
This supports the idea of a potential reaction low or swing low.
❌ No higher high yet
❌ No sustained acceptance above the mid-range
❌ Broader structure still corrective
In markets like Natural Gas, bottoms form as zones, not single candles.
At present, this is support response — not trend confirmation.
2.35 – 2.70
Structural demand
Loss of this zone weakens the bullish case
Acceptance below opens risk toward ~2.00–1.60
3.00 – 3.10
Reclaiming and holding above strengthens the structure
Failure here keeps price range-bound
3.43 – 3.87
Heavy supply zone
Only above this does upside expand meaningfully
4.40 – 5.30
Prior exhaustion zone
Relevant only if structure improves materially
Bullish swing structure invalidated on sustained acceptance below ~2.35
Until then, downside is contained but not eliminated
Natural Gas has reacted from a technically important support zone, suggesting a potential swing low. However, the broader structure remains corrective. Strength must be proven through acceptance above key pivots, not assumed.
Structure > Prediction
Levels > Opinion
Confirmation > Hope
Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational and structural awareness purposes only. It is not a recommendation. Decisions remain the responsibility of the individual.
https://in.tradingview.com/chart/XNGUSD/iw22xOKT-XNGUSD-Bottom-or-Reaction-Structure-First/
NIFTY is currently moving inside a broad, overlapping range after a strong multi-month advance. Similar structural behaviour was seen in the past, where price transitioned from expansion into time-based digestion before resolving directionally.
This post focuses on structure, support, resistance, and invalidation — not prediction.
Silver (XAGUSD) on higher timeframes continues to respect a long-term rising structure, but recent price behaviour signals structural maturity, not a fresh impulsive phase.
On the 6-month timeframe, price has advanced far above its historical mean while remaining supported by a decades-old rising trendline. This confirms that the secular trend is still intact, but it also highlights elevated time risk.
Gold remains in a strong secular uptrend, clearly contained within a long-term rising channel. The recent phase has been marked by sharp acceleration, pushing price into higher Fibonacci zones. While this reflects strength, it also signals structural maturity.
Structural reference only | Educational
No cycle-degree structural changes were observed across tracked assets this week.
Price action continues to be dominated by consolidation after extended advances, with overlapping and time-based corrective behaviour prevailing.
Structural risk boundaries remain intact, and no cycle-level invalidations have occurred.
Introduction
Bitcoin’s long-term structure remains constructive on the monthly timeframe. Despite sharp intermediate swings, price continues to respect its broader rising framework, keeping the primary trend intact.
Bitcoin is trading within a multi-year rising channel, with price action showing signs of time-based consolidation rather than structural deterioration. This behaviour is typical following extended impulsive advances.
There is no evidence of cycle-degree breakdown at present.
Timeframe: Daily / Higher-Timeframe Reference
Approach: Structure first. Action later.
Purpose: Structural context, not prediction
NIFTY 50 continues to trade within a well-defined secular uptrend. The broader cycle structure remains intact following a strong multi-year advance.
Recent price behaviour reflects time-based structural consolidation near the upper range of the trend, rather than trend exhaustion or reversal.
Secular uptrend remains intact
Price is consolidating after an extended advance
Overlapping, range-bound movement dominates
No impulsive downside sequence observed
This behaviour is characteristic of structural digestion, not distribution.
24,334: Major structural pivot within the ongoing cycle
16,747: Long-term cycle support and key risk boundary
These levels define structural risk, not targets.
A structural reassessment would be required only if:
Sustained breakdown below key cycle supports occurs
A clear impulsive decline develops on higher timeframes
Structural levels fail decisively (not volatility-driven moves)
Short-term volatility
Time-based sideways movement
Overlapping corrective swings
News-driven reactions without structural follow-through
NIFTY remains in a secular uptrend, currently undergoing structural consolidation after an extended advance. Until key structural levels fail, this phase should be viewed as cycle normalization, not a major trend reversal.
This framework is structural and educational, not a trade or forecast.
Risk is defined by structure, not momentum.
MarketOmorph — Structure First. Action Later.
Structural reference only | Educational
#NIFTY #NIFTY50 #IndianMarkets #MarketStructure #TechnicalAnalysis #CycleAnalysis #PriceAction #MarketOmorph
Timeframe: Daily / Higher-Timeframe Reference
Approach: Structure first. Action later.
Purpose: Structural context, not prediction
Silver continues to trade within a secular rising channel.
The recent vertical advance reflects acceleration, typically followed by a phase of structural digestion.
Timeframe: Daily / Higher-Timeframe Reference
Purpose: Structural context, not prediction
Approach: Structure first. Action later.
Gold continues to trade within a well-defined secular rising channel.
The larger trend remains intact following a strong and extended advance.
Recent price behaviour reflects momentum digestion rather than trend failure. From a cycle perspective, this phase is consistent with a Wave-4 type structural correction, typically time-based and overlapping in nature.
Silver is one of the most misunderstood markets in technical analysis.
Applying equity-style trend logic to Silver often leads to frustration, early exits, or incorrect bearish conclusions. A long-term study of Silver reveals a very different truth:
Silver spends most of its life compressing — and very little time expanding.
Understanding this structural behavior is essential for correct Elliott Wave interpretation.
This chart presents a long-term structural view of Gold (XAUUSD) using Elliott Wave principles on the monthly timeframe.
It is not designed to forecast short-term price movement.
It exists to anchor expectations, define structural maturity, and provide a long-range context for investors, analysts, and serious market observers.
Gold’s current position must be evaluated not emotionally, but structurally.
Natural Gas is one of the most misunderstood markets in technical analysis.
Applying equity-style trend expectations to NG often leads to incorrect conclusions.
A review of over a century of Natural Gas futures data reveals a consistent structural truth:
Natural Gas spends most of its life in compression and basing, followed by short-lived but violent expansions.
Understanding this behavior is essential for correct Elliott Wave interpretation.
Unlike equities, Natural Gas behaves very differently:
Mean-reverting by nature
Supply–demand shocks create vertical spikes
Corrections frequently retrace 70–90% of prior advances
These characteristics naturally produce:
Deep Wave-2 corrections
Complex Wave-B structures
Extended sideways phases
👉 This is normal behavior, not weakness.
The historical chart shows repeating cycles of:
Long accumulation / base formation
Explosive upside expansions
Deep, prolonged corrective phases
Importantly, the corrective phases:
Are overlapping
Lack impulsive downside momentum
Consume more time than price
This directly explains why NG corrections feel “messy” yet remain structurally valid.
The 2020–2022 rally qualifies as a major impulsive expansion.
The decline from the 2022 peak has so far displayed:
Overlapping price action
Lack of sustained downside acceleration
Stabilisation near long-term equilibrium levels
This behavior aligns best with a Wave-2 or Wave-B correction, not a new secular downtrend.
No impulsive bearish sequence is visible
Price is building inside a long-term base zone
Structure remains corrective, not trend-breaking
👉 No confirmation yet of a bearish Wave-3 down.
On long-term charts:
RSI rarely stays oversold for extended periods
Momentum stabilisation often precedes large moves
Divergences matter only near structural extremes
Current RSI behavior shows:
Holding in the 40–45 zone
Higher lows forming
No bearish momentum expansion
👉 This supports a corrective reset, not continuation weakness.
2.60 – 3.05
As long as price holds above this zone, the basing structure remains intact.
3.30 – 3.40
Sustained acceptance above this range would signal upside expansion potential.
Sustained weekly acceptance below ~2.50
→ Structure becomes extended and requires reassessment.
Continued range development is possible
Volatility compression before directional release
NG historically does not drift into trends — it releases suddenly
Patience during basing phases is essential.
Avoid prediction inside the range
Respect structure and key levels
React only on acceptance or rejection, not emotion
Structure first. Reaction second. Prediction last.
The historical Natural Gas futures chart strongly supports the view that:
Deep, prolonged corrections are normal
Current price action fits a late corrective / basing phase
Large moves typically follow extended boredom, not excitement
Elliott Wave is not about prediction — it is about understanding structure.
This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
#NaturalGas #NG #XNGUSD
#MarketStructure #ElliottWave
#Commodities #Wave2
Silver is also undergoing a Wave-4 correction within a broader bullish structure.
The corrective advance is best classified as a W–X–Y formation, similar to Gold, but with greater price extension, suggesting Silver may be closer to completion.
Gold is currently progressing through a complex Wave-4 correction within a larger bullish cycle.
Based on price behavior, momentum characteristics, and structural relationships, the correction is best interpreted as a W–X–Y pattern rather than an impulsive advance.
https://ewavesjournal.blogspot.com/2026/01/marketomorph-yearly-structural-map-2026.html
This Week 2 MarketOmorph Structural Bulletin examines key markets including Gold, Silver, Crude Oil, the US Dollar Index (DXY), US 10Y Treasury Yield, Nifty 50, S&P 500, and USD/INR.
The focus remains on structure and behavior, not short-term forecasts. The analysis aligns with the Yearly MarketOmorph map: structure must be confirmed, not speculated.
Power Grid Corporation of India Limited has been one of the most structurally consistent PSU stocks over the last decade. Its long-term price behaviour offers a clean case study of how strong secular trends pause, reset, and continue.
This analysis presents a conservative Elliott Wave interpretation, focusing on structure, proportion, and time, rather than prediction or targets.
Since the 2009 lows, Power Grid has remained in a clear rising channel
Price action has respected trend structure with orderly corrections
No signs of parabolic excess or terminal behaviour are visible
This establishes a secular bullish backdrop by default.
The advance from the 2009 low can be interpreted as a developing impulsive sequence:
Wave (1): Early trend initiation after base formation
Wave (2): Deep but corrective retracement
Wave (3): Strong, extended advance into 2024 highs
Wave (3) shows:
Clear momentum expansion
Strong slope relative to prior waves
Exhaustion near upper channel boundaries
This is typical third-wave behaviour, not a terminal wave.
The recent pullback from highs is best interpreted as a higher-degree Wave (4).
Key characteristics supporting this view:
Overlapping price action
Loss of upside momentum, not downside acceleration
Price holding within the broader rising channel
RSI cooling rather than collapsing
Importantly:
Wave (4) corrections are often time-consuming and complex, prioritising consolidation over sharp declines.
This aligns well with the current behaviour.
Two structural guides are used on the chart:
Blue channel: Secular impulse container
Green trendline: Internal trend guide
Elliott Wave principle:
Wave (4) may temporarily breach internal guides
Wave (4) should not show an impulsive breakdown of the main channel
As of now, no structural violation has occurred.
Fibonacci levels are used only as reference, not as targets.
Observations:
Wave (3) exhaustion aligns with higher extensions
Current pullback remains proportional to prior corrections
This supports a pause after expansion, not a reversal.
This is not a bearish setup
It is a structural pause within a secular uptrend
Time correction is likely to dominate over price correction
Wave (4) phases often test patience rather than conviction.
Wave (3) rewards participation.
Wave (4) rewards discipline.
Only after Wave (4) matures can the next impulsive phase be evaluated with confidence.
This analysis is for educational purposes only and represents a probabilistic Elliott Wave interpretation. It is not investment advice. Readers should perform their own research.
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/POWERGRID/JkfMyBrH-POWERGRID-Monthly-Elliott-Wave-Structure-Check/
#POWERGRID #ElliottWave #ElliottWaveAnalysis #MarketStructure
#WaveFour #CorrectiveStructure #LongTermInvesting
#IndianStocks #ChartStudy #StructureBased
ITC Limited has remained one of India’s most discussed long-term stocks, especially after its strong rally from the 2020 lows. While many interpret the recent price action as the beginning of a new secular uptrend, Elliott Wave analysis demands probability-based thinking, not confirmation bias.
This study presents a conservative alternate Elliott Wave count, focusing on structure, time, and risk control, rather than price targets.
The secular uptrend from the 1990s remains intact.
A powerful Large Degree Wave (iii) appears to have completed around the 2017–2018 highs.
Price action since then is best interpreted as a Large Degree Wave (iv) — currently ongoing.
Wave (iv) corrections are known for:
Sideways movement
Overlapping price action
Time-consuming consolidation
Misleading rallies
This fits ITC’s behaviour remarkably well.
Rather than a simple correction, Wave (iv) is unfolding as a complex structure.
Wave A: Decline into the 2020 pandemic low
Wave B: 2020–2024 rally
Wave C: Still pending or developing
A key Elliott Wave principle applies here:
B-wave rallies often appear impulsive and convincing, despite being corrective in nature.
This explains why the post-2020 rally created strong bullish sentiment without delivering a decisive long-term breakout.
Fibonacci retracement levels around 0.236 and 0.382 of the prior impulse define a corrective equilibrium zone, where price oscillates rather than trends.
ITC has:
Respected this zone
Failed to accelerate decisively beyond it
Spent significant time consolidating within it
This reinforces the ongoing corrective interpretation, rather than a fresh impulse.
The rising green trendline on the chart is labelled as:
Secular Bull Market Support (Guide, not a rule)
Important clarification:
Wave (iv) can temporarily breach this trendline
Such breaches are normal and corrective
Only an impulsive breakdown would invalidate the long-term bullish structure
As of now, no such structural damage is visible.
This is not a bearish call
It is a patience call
Time correction may still dominate over price correction
Wave (iv) phases are designed to:
Exhaust emotions
Shake confidence
Delay gratification
Only after Wave (iv) completes cleanly can a high-confidence Wave (v) be evaluated.
The conservative alternate Elliott Wave count suggests that ITC is still navigating a large-degree corrective phase, despite appearances.
When Wave (iv) refuses to end, it teaches discipline.
When Wave (v) begins, it leaves no ambiguity.
Until then, structure — not optimism — remains the guide.
This analysis is for educational purposes only and reflects a probabilistic Elliott Wave interpretation. It is not investment advice. Markets involve risk, and readers should conduct their own due diligence.
#ITC
#ITCLimited
#ElliottWave
#ElliottWaveAnalysis
#WaveAnalysis
#TechnicalAnalysis
Structural follow-through after multi-year base resolution
Hindustan Copper has transitioned from a prolonged basing phase into a higher-degree advance. The recent move is best understood as structural continuation rather than momentum-driven expansion.
01-FEB-2024
• Higher-degree trend: Resumed / intact
• Nature of current phase: Post-breakout digestion
• Impulse vs correction: Impulse dominant, correction shallow
• Time behaviour: Multi-year base → expansion → pause
• Confirmation status: Partial follow-through achieved
Price has resolved above the long-term base formed over more than a decade, followed by a strong impulsive leg. The recent consolidation is occurring above former resistance, indicating acceptance rather than rejection. Structure remains orderly and non-overlapping on higher timeframes.
• No breakdown back into the long-term base
• No impulsive bearish reversal structure
• No higher-degree trend violation
• No signs of exhaustion typical of terminal moves
• Sustained acceptance above former breakout zone
• Further impulsive expansion after time digestion
• Respect of higher-degree structural supports
• Continuation without deep retracement into prior ranges
HINDCOPPER continues to validate the long-term structural thesis laid out earlier. Until the broader structure is violated, this phase should be treated as structural digestion within a larger advance, not a reversal.
This analysis is for educational purposes only. It is not investment advice.
#MarketStructure #ElliottWave #HindustanCopper #LongTermInvesting #TechnicalAnalysis #IndianMarkets
01-FEB-2024: https://ewavesjournal.blogspot.com/2024/02/pse-miniratna-companies-01-feb-2024.html
Timeframe: Monthly
Approach: Market Structure • Trend Channels • Demand–Supply Logic
Objective: Guide investors on path and risk, not price targets
Reliance Industries remains within a long-term rising structural channel that originated after the 2016 secular breakout.
This breakout marked the end of a prolonged corrective phase and the beginning of a sustained upward structure.
From a structural standpoint:
The primary trend is still UP
However, recent price action is time-consuming, overlapping, and momentum-moderate
This behavior reflects trend maturity, not trend failure
The market is currently digesting past gains, rather than expanding impulsively.
The advance since 2016 has already delivered significant structural progress
Current price behavior suggests:
Reduced vertical momentum
Increased sideways movement
Greater sensitivity to demand–supply reactions
This is typical of a late-stage trend phase, where:
Time corrections dominate over price corrections
Investor patience is tested
Structure becomes more important than price projections
₹1,270 – ₹1,300
This zone represents:
Long-term channel support
Structural retracement acceptance
Prior price memory area
As long as price holds and responds constructively above this zone, the broader structure remains intact.
₹1,050 – ₹1,100
This area aligns with:
Channel equilibrium
Long-term structural balance
A test here would indicate a deeper time correction, not a secular trend breakdown.
Sustained monthly close below ₹1,050
Such a move would:
Break the long-term rising channel
Signal a shift from trend continuation to larger corrective behavior
This is not a forecast, only a risk definition.
₹393
Mentioned purely as:
Historical secular base
Contextual reference for very long-term investors
Not an expectation.
Price is operating in the upper half of the long-term channel
Historically, this zone:
Favors consolidation
Reduces asymmetrical upside
Increases rotational behavior
Investors should focus on structure and reactions, not acceleration.
RSI remains neutral-positive (mid-50s range)
No sustained bullish expansion
Indicates:
Healthy digestion phase
Absence of early-trend momentum
Momentum confirms maturity, not weakness.
✔ Secular trend remains intact
✔ Structure still constructive
⚠ Current phase favors patience over aggression
❌ No targets, no timelines, no predictions
Markets move in phases.
Structure defines risk.
Price reveals intent.
This analysis is educational and structural, not investment advice.
Markets involve risk. Investors should make decisions aligned with their own risk profile.
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/RELIANCE/tCgXuFa0-RELIANCE-Monthly-Structural-View/
#Reliance
#IndianStocks
#LongTermInvesting
#MarketStructure
#PriceAction
#DemandSupply
#TrendAnalysis
#InvestorView
#NoTargets
#RiskManagement
