🇮🇳 Power Grid Corporation of India Limited: Elliott Wave Perspective – Wave (4) in Progress

 

Introduction

Power Grid Corporation of India Limited has been one of the most structurally consistent PSU stocks over the last decade. Its long-term price behaviour offers a clean case study of how strong secular trends pause, reset, and continue.

This analysis presents a conservative Elliott Wave interpretation, focusing on structure, proportion, and time, rather than prediction or targets.

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Secular Trend Context

• Since the 2009 lows, Power Grid has remained in a clear rising channel

• Price action has respected trend structure with orderly corrections

• No signs of parabolic excess or terminal behaviour are visible

This establishes a secular bullish backdrop by default.

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Primary Elliott Wave Structure

The advance from the 2009 low can be interpreted as a developing impulsive sequence:

• Wave (1): Early trend initiation after base formation

• Wave (2): Deep but corrective retracement

• Wave (3): Strong, extended advance into 2024 highs

Wave (3) shows:

• Clear momentum expansion

• Strong slope relative to prior waves

• Exhaustion near upper channel boundaries

This is typical third-wave behaviour, not a terminal wave.

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Current Phase: Probable Wave (4)

The recent pullback from highs is best interpreted as a higher-degree Wave (4).

Key characteristics supporting this view:

• Overlapping price action

• Loss of upside momentum, not downside acceleration

• Price holding within the broader rising channel

• RSI cooling rather than collapsing

Importantly:

Wave (4) corrections are often time-consuming and complex, prioritising consolidation over sharp declines.

This aligns well with the current behaviour.

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Trendlines & Channels – A Key Elliott Nuance

Two structural guides are used on the chart:

• Blue channel: Secular impulse container

• Green trendline: Internal trend guide

Elliott Wave principle:

• Wave (4) may temporarily breach internal guides

• Wave (4) should not show an impulsive breakdown of the main channel

As of now, no structural violation has occurred.

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Fibonacci & Proportionality

Fibonacci levels are used only as reference, not as targets.

Observations:

• Wave (3) exhaustion aligns with higher extensions

• Current pullback remains proportional to prior corrections

This supports a pause after expansion, not a reversal.

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What This Means for Long-Term Investors

• This is not a bearish setup

• It is a structural pause within a secular uptrend

• Time correction is likely to dominate over price correction

Wave (4) phases often test patience rather than conviction.

Wave (3) rewards participation.
Wave (4) rewards discipline.

Only after Wave (4) matures can the next impulsive phase be evaluated with confidence.

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Disclaimer

This analysis is for educational purposes only and represents a probabilistic Elliott Wave interpretation. It is not investment advice. Readers should perform their own research.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/POWERGRID/JkfMyBrH-POWERGRID-Monthly-Elliott-Wave-Structure-Check/

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