🟡 GOLD (XAUUSD): Late-Stage Wave-4 (W–X–Y) Correction in Progress

 

Timeframe: 3-Hour

Methodology: Elliott Wave – Structural Analysis

Gold is currently progressing through a complex Wave-4 correction within a larger bullish cycle.
Based on price behavior, momentum characteristics, and structural relationships, the correction is best interpreted as a W–X–Y pattern rather than an impulsive advance.

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Structural Context

The rally from the recent swing low shows:

• Overlapping price swings

• Lack of sustained impulsive momentum

• Repeated internal retracements

These characteristics strongly favor a corrective structure, consistent with Wave-4 behavior.

It is important to note that Wave-4 corrections are often complex and may unfold as:

• Flats

• Expanded flats

• Double threes (W–X–Y)

• Contracting or irregular formations

Temporary trendline breaks or piercings during Wave-4 are structurally normal and do not invalidate the larger trend by themselves.

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Momentum & Fibonacci Observations

• RSI is hovering near higher levels but shows loss of momentum relative to price

• No impulsive RSI expansion is visible, which would otherwise support a Wave-5 interpretation

• Price is trading near typical Wave-Y exhaustion zones, where corrective advances often mature

These factors together reinforce the view that the current rise is part of a late-stage corrective phase, not a new impulsive leg.

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Key Levels to Monitor

• Upper Zone: Area where Wave-Y exhaustion is likely

• Internal Support: Previous Wave-4 internal support zone remains intact

• Structural Invalidation: A decisive break below the prior corrective base would challenge the current count

As long as structural supports hold, the larger bullish context remains valid.

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Outlook

Gold is likely nearing the completion phase of Wave-4.
Short-term sideways movement or a brief extension cannot be ruled out, but upside potential appears limited within the corrective framework.

Once Wave-4 completes, the market should be positioned for a Wave-5 advance, resuming the primary bullish trend.

Elliott Wave provides a structural roadmap, not precise timing.

This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only.
It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XAUUSD/gTPG9tqJ-GOLD-XAUUSD-Late-Stage-Wave-4-W-X-Y-Correction/

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