Crude Oil has spent the past several years digesting the sharp impulse that followed the 2020–2022 cycle. Despite periodic fundamental catalysts and counter-trend rallies, the price structure itself has not transitioned into an impulsive trend.
A structure-first view helps separate possibility from probability.
The Structural Context
Since the 2022 peak, Crude Oil has exhibited:
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Persistent lower highs
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Broad overlapping price action
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A descending corrective channel
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Momentum oscillating in a neutral (40–55 RSI) regime
These characteristics are typical of a large, time-consuming corrective phase, not a directional trend.
Why the Correction Cannot Be Assumed Complete
Corrections are only confirmed after they complete — not while they are unfolding.
At present:
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No impulsive upside structure is visible
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Rallies remain corrective in form
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Key supply levels continue to cap advances
As a result, labeling a final corrective leg as complete would be premature.
Structure vs Fundamentals
Macro and fundamental factors may argue for higher prices over time. However:
Fundamentals suggest possibility; structure determines probability.
Until price action confirms a base through impulsive behavior and acceptance above supply, the dominant regime remains corrective.
What Would Change the View
The structural outlook would improve only if:
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Price breaks and holds above major supply
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Overlap reduces materially
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Momentum shifts into a sustained bullish regime
Absent these signals, patience and structural discipline remain essential.
Conclusion
Markets do not move on narratives alone.
They move when structure allows.
Crude Oil remains in a correction that is ongoing and unconfirmed in completion.
The correct stance is observation, not anticipation.
Structure first. Outcomes later.
Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational and structural research purposes only.
It does not constitute investment advice or trade recommendations.
#CrudeOil #WTI #MarketStructure #ElliottWave #TechnicalAnalysis #StructureFirst #Commodities
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