Introduction
ITC Limited has remained one of India’s most discussed long-term stocks, especially after its strong rally from the 2020 lows. While many interpret the recent price action as the beginning of a new secular uptrend, Elliott Wave analysis demands probability-based thinking, not confirmation bias.
This study presents a conservative alternate Elliott Wave count, focusing on structure, time, and risk control, rather than price targets.
Primary Long-Term Structure
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The secular uptrend from the 1990s remains intact.
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A powerful Large Degree Wave (iii) appears to have completed around the 2017–2018 highs.
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Price action since then is best interpreted as a Large Degree Wave (iv) — currently ongoing.
Wave (iv) corrections are known for:
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Sideways movement
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Overlapping price action
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Time-consuming consolidation
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Misleading rallies
This fits ITC’s behaviour remarkably well.
Understanding the Current Wave (iv)
Rather than a simple correction, Wave (iv) is unfolding as a complex structure.
Internal Structure (Conservative View)
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Wave A: Decline into the 2020 pandemic low
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Wave B: 2020–2024 rally
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Wave C: Still pending or developing
A key Elliott Wave principle applies here:
B-wave rallies often appear impulsive and convincing, despite being corrective in nature.
This explains why the post-2020 rally created strong bullish sentiment without delivering a decisive long-term breakout.
Corrective Equilibrium Zone
Fibonacci retracement levels around 0.236 and 0.382 of the prior impulse define a corrective equilibrium zone, where price oscillates rather than trends.
ITC has:
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Respected this zone
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Failed to accelerate decisively beyond it
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Spent significant time consolidating within it
This reinforces the ongoing corrective interpretation, rather than a fresh impulse.
Trendlines & Structural Support
The rising green trendline on the chart is labelled as:
Secular Bull Market Support (Guide, not a rule)
Important clarification:
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Wave (iv) can temporarily breach this trendline
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Such breaches are normal and corrective
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Only an impulsive breakdown would invalidate the long-term bullish structure
As of now, no such structural damage is visible.
What This Means for Long-Term Investors
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This is not a bearish call
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It is a patience call
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Time correction may still dominate over price correction
Wave (iv) phases are designed to:
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Exhaust emotions
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Shake confidence
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Delay gratification
Only after Wave (iv) completes cleanly can a high-confidence Wave (v) be evaluated.
Conclusion
The conservative alternate Elliott Wave count suggests that ITC is still navigating a large-degree corrective phase, despite appearances.
When Wave (iv) refuses to end, it teaches discipline.
When Wave (v) begins, it leaves no ambiguity.
Until then, structure — not optimism — remains the guide.
Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational purposes only and reflects a probabilistic Elliott Wave interpretation. It is not investment advice. Markets involve risk, and readers should conduct their own due diligence.
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