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Tuesday, 30 December 2025

Silver and the Illusion of the “Blow-Off Top”: A Structural Perspective

 

Introduction

Every major rally in Silver revives the same discussion:

“This looks like 1980.”
“This looks like 2011.”
“It must be a blow-off top.”

This article explains why price similarity without structural context is misleading, and what actually matters at market extremes.

AUDUSD vs DXY: Understanding Macro FX Structure & Why Commodities Matter

🌍 AUDUSD vs DXY: Understanding Macro FX Structure & Why Commodities Matter

(A Structural, Time-Based Market Study — Not a Forecast)


Introduction

Foreign exchange markets rarely move in isolation.
Currencies, commodities, and macro indices are deeply interconnected — yet most analysis looks at them individually, leading to premature conclusions.

This study takes a structure-first approach to understand:

  • Why DXY (U.S. Dollar Index) is not trending despite volatility

  • Why AUDUSD remains structurally constrained

  • How commodities influence AUD, but cannot override macro FX structure

  • What kind of price action would actually matter for a genuine trend shift

This is not a prediction.

GBPUSD: Understanding the Ongoing Corrective C Wave

GBPUSD remains in a broader corrective environment, with price action unfolding within a clearly defined channel. The current structure best fits a C wave in progress, following a completed A–B correction.

Importantly, the advance lacks impulsive characteristics and continues to respect corrective boundaries. Momentum remains supportive but not extreme, suggesting continuation within the structure rather than immediate exhaustion.

Until price either breaks decisively above the corrective channel or loses channel support, this remains a structural correction, not a trend reversal.

This analysis is based purely on price structure and momentum behaviour, without relying on indicators or sentiment.


⚠️ DISCLAIMER

This analysis is for educational and structural study purposes only.
It is not financial advice or a trade recommendation.
Markets involve risk — always manage exposure responsibly.


#GBPUSD #ElliottWave #CorrectiveStructure #MarketStructure #ForexAnalysis


https://in.tradingview.com/chart/GBPUSD/1Uw9K6rX-GBPUSD-C-Wave-Unfolding-Inside-a-Corrective-Channel/

USDCAD: Why the Trend Remains Bullish Despite Extended Wave 5

 Markets often confuse extension with exhaustion.

USDCAD is a textbook example of why that assumption can be dangerous.


πŸ”Ή Big Picture Context

On the monthly timeframe, USDCAD continues to respect a long-standing rising channel, confirming that the dominant trend remains intact. The current phase fits best with an extended Wave 5, characterized by:

  • Time-based consolidation

  • Overlapping price action

  • Momentum digestion without structural damage

This is not a reversal pattern — it is a continuation structure until proven otherwise.

πŸ”Ή Why This Is Not a Top

  • No confirmed bearish divergence on higher timeframes

  • No impulsive downside break

  • No channel violation

Extended Wave 5 phases are known to move slowly, frustrate participants, and consolidate internally before the next directional resolution.

πŸ”Ή What Would Change the View

The bullish structure would only come into question if price breaks and sustains below the rising channel, signaling a higher-degree trend transition.

Until then, the path of least resistance remains structurally upward.

🧠 Key Takeaway

Trend maturity does not equal trend termination.

Structure always leads. Emotion follows.


Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational and research purposes only. It is not investment advice. Markets involve risk.


https://in.tradingview.com/chart/USDCAD/hiREZrsf-USDCAD-Monthly-Wave-5-Extended-Structure-Intact/


#MarketStructure

#ElliottWave

#USDCAD

#ForexAnalysis

#WaveTheory

#TechnicalAnalysis

#TrendStructure

#MacroMarkets

#PriceAction

#EwavesJournal


NIFTY at Highs: Why Time-Based Corrections Confuse Most Traders

 

Introduction

Markets don’t always correct through sharp declines. At higher degrees, corrections often unfold in time rather than price, especially near major highs.

NIFTY’s current behaviour is a classic example of this phenomenon.

Ewaves Journal: A Journey of Market Structure (2016–Present)

Evolution of Ewaves Journal

Ewaves Journal did not start in its current form.

The work evolved through different phases and identities —
reflecting deeper understanding of markets over time:

Raj Technical Analysis – early learning and observation phase
Market Research Analysis – structure and multi-market comparison
Ewaves Journal – refined focus on Elliott Wave, trend structure, and key levels

While the name evolved, the core principle remained unchanged:
markets move in structure, not in narratives.

Crossing 100,000 views is not an endpoint,
but a confirmation that consistent, noise-free analysis has value.


#EwavesJournal #MarketStructure #ElliottWave #PriceAction

#TrendStructure #MacroStructure #GoldAnalysis #SilverAnalysis

#StructureOverNoise


Saturday, 27 December 2025

🟑 WHY GOLD & SILVER ARE BULLISH: A STRUCTURAL COMPARATIVE STUDY

 

(DXY vs Gold vs Silver | COMEX & MCX Perspective)


Introduction

Gold and Silver do not move in isolation.
Their long-term trends are deeply connected to the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY).

Instead of relying on news or narratives, this study explains why Gold and Silver remain structurally bullish, using a comparative, multi-market approach:

  • DXY (macro driver)

  • Gold & Silver – COMEX (global price discovery)

  • Gold & Silver – MCX (local reflection of global structure)

This analysis is based purely on price structure, Elliott Wave context, and momentum behaviour.

U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) Monthly Elliott Wave Analysis: Bigger Picture, Key Levels & What to Watch

 

Introduction

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) plays a critical role in global markets, especially for commodities like Gold and Silver.
Instead of focusing on short-term moves or macro headlines, this analysis studies the monthly price structure of DXY using Elliott Wave principles, Fibonacci retracements, and momentum behaviour.

Silver (XAGUSD) Monthly Elliott Wave Analysis: Bigger Picture with Key Levels

 

Introduction

Silver (XAGUSD) is best analysed through long-term price structure, not short-term volatility or headlines.
This monthly Elliott Wave analysis focuses on the bigger picture, identifying where Silver stands within its long-term cycle and outlining key structural levels for awareness.


This study is based purely on price behaviour, Elliott Wave structure, Fibonacci alignment, and momentum — not news or fundamentals.

Gold (XAUUSD) Weekly Elliott Wave Analysis: Bigger Picture with Key Levels


Introduction

Gold’s long-term trend is best understood through market structure, not short-term reactions.
This weekly Elliott Wave analysis focuses on the bigger picture, highlighting where Gold stands within its long-term cycle and defining key structural levels — without encouraging impulsive decisions.

Wednesday, 24 December 2025

NIFTY 50: Transition Phase — Time-Based Wave (4) vs Final Extension

 NIFTY continues to trade within a long-term rising channel, maintaining the integrity of the broader bullish structure from the pandemic low. However, recent price behavior suggests the market is no longer in a clean trending phase and may be transitioning into a structural digestion phase.

Primary Structure

From the 2020 low, NIFTY developed a clear impulsive advance, with Wave (3) delivering strong upside momentum. Since then, price action has slowed, overlap has increased, and progress has become more rotational than directional.

Despite this, no major structural support has been violated, and the long-term trend remains intact.

Tuesday, 23 December 2025

XAGUSD (Silver): Impulsive Structure Intact, Consolidation Before Continuation

Silver continues to trade within a well-defined rising channel on the 3H timeframe, maintaining a clear bullish structure from the November lows. Despite short-term fluctuations, the broader price action remains orderly and directional, showing no signs of structural breakdown.

Gold (XAUUSD): RSI Cooling Is Not Weakness — It’s Preparation

Gold’s recent price action may appear volatile on lower timeframes, but structurally the market is behaving exactly as a healthy trend should. The current pause is not a sign of exhaustion — it is a necessary reset within a larger impulsive advance.

Monday, 22 December 2025

NIFTY 50 – Bearish Scenario in Focus (Medium-Term Risk Assessment)

Timeframe: Weekly

Nature of View: Risk-management oriented
Bias: 50:50 (Balanced, not predictive)

This analysis presents a conditional corrective scenario for risk management purposes. It does not indicate a trend reversal; the long-term structure of NIFTY remains bullish.


Big Picture First (No Confusion)

Let me state this clearly at the start:

  • Long-term trend: ✅ Still BULLISH

  • Medium-term structure: ⚠️ Caution zone

  • Short to medium-term risk: πŸ”΄ Pullback possible

This analysis is not a call for a trend reversal.
It is a protective, scenario-based assessment based on historical behavior near major highs.

MarketOMorph v1.0 – Understanding Gold & Silver Through Market Morphology

 A Top-down, Contextual, Non-Predictive Structural Framework

MarketOMorph is a market behaviour framework, not a forecasting model.

This study focuses on how price behaves, not where it is expected to go.

In MarketOMorph v1.0, we apply market morphology + Elliott Wave structure to Gold and Silver (Bullions only) using a strict top-down approach:

  • Monthly → Weekly → Daily

  • Structure first, execution never

Sunday, 21 December 2025

Elliott Wave Pictopedia – Crude Oil (XTIUSD)

 This Crude Oil edition of the Elliott Wave Pictopedia presents a top-down structural view of the market using Elliott Wave principles across Monthly, Weekly, and Daily timeframes. 

The focus is on structure and market behaviour rather than prediction, targets, or timing. 

The analysis highlights Crude Oil’s current position within a broader corrective phase, with no confirmed long-term bottom or impulsive reversal yet. 

This document is intended purely for learning and structural understanding, helping readers align expectations with market context rather than short-term noise.

πŸ‘‰ Download the PDF: Elliott Wave Pictopedia - Crude Oil (XTIUSD)

For learning & structure only. 

Elliott Wave Pictopedia – Silver (XAGUSD)

This Elliott Wave Pictopedia presents a top-down structural study of Silver (XAGUSD), focusing on long-term context, wave development, and probabilistic interpretation rather than prediction.
The analysis progresses from multi-month and weekly structure down to daily and 4H monitoring, highlighting how impulse phases develop and how corrections must be confirmed by structure, not assumption.

This work is intended purely for learning and structural clarity, not for price targets, timing forecasts, or trade recommendations.

Saturday, 20 December 2025

Elliott Wave Pictopedia – Gold (XAUUSD)

 Elliott Wave Pictopedia – Gold is a structured, top-down visual guide designed to help readers understand Gold’s long-term price behaviour through Elliott Wave principles.

This work focuses on structure, probability, and context, not predictions or trade calls. By moving step-by-step from higher timeframes to lower ones, the study highlights how trends mature, where corrections may begin, and—most importantly—why Elliott Wave analysis waits for price evidence, not assumptions.
This document is shared purely for learning and structural clarity, and to encourage disciplined, non-emotional market observation.

Wednesday, 17 December 2025

πŸ“˜ eWaves Journal – Daily Market Update - 17 Dec 2025


Date: 17 Dec 2025
Theme: Structure intact | No change in primary view


🟑 GOLD (Spot + MCX) – Trend Holding Firm

Observation

  • Price continues to respect the broader bullish structure.

  • Consolidation after the previous impulse is healthy, not a sign of weakness.

  • No breakdown of key support zones.

Structure

  • Larger trend: Uptrend intact

  • Current phase: Pause / consolidation within trend

  • No invalidation levels breached.

Journal Note

No change from yesterday’s analysis. As long as price holds above the marked support band, the path of least resistance remains upward.




πŸ›’️ CRUDE OIL (WTI / MCX) – Weakness Continues

Observation

  • Price remains below the major resistance cluster.

  • Repeated rejection confirms supply dominance.

  • Momentum remains soft.

Structure

  • Broader structure: Corrective / range-bound to weak

  • No bullish confirmation yet.

Journal Note

Crude continues to struggle below resistance. Until a decisive reclaim happens, upside should be treated as corrective only.



πŸ’΅ DXY (Dollar Index) – Pressure Sustained

Observation

  • Dollar remains under pressure near the lower structure.

  • No impulsive bounce yet.

  • RSI remains below neutral → momentum favors weakness.

Structure

  • Medium to long-term: Corrective / bearish bias

  • Supports global commodities.

Journal Note

DXY weakness remains supportive for Gold and risk assets. No reason to change the broader view at this stage.



πŸ”© COPPER – Bullish Structure Holding

Observation

  • Price continues to trade within the rising channel.

  • Higher highs and higher lows intact.

  • Pullbacks remain controlled.

Structure

  • Trend: Bullish

  • Current phase: Continuation

Journal Note

Copper remains one of the strongest structures among commodities. No signs of distribution yet.



πŸ“Š NIFTY – Consolidation Within Uptrend

Observation

  • Index is digesting gains near resistance.

  • No structural breakdown.

  • Momentum neutral to mildly positive.

Structure

  • Primary trend: Up

  • Current phase: Sideways consolidation

Journal Note

This is a pause, not a reversal. Trend remains valid unless key supports fail.



🧠 Overall Journal Conclusion (Today)

  • No structural changes across tracked instruments

  • Yesterday’s roadmap remains valid

  • Market is respecting levels, not reacting emotionally

Best action today: Observe, document, stay patient.

Tuesday, 16 December 2025

S&P 500 – Structural Roadmap & Macro Context


Introduction

The S&P 500 remains one of the most important global risk benchmarks, influencing capital flows, sentiment, and cross-asset behavior.
This analysis focuses on the structural and wave-based framework of the index, shared strictly for macro context and market understanding, not for short-term trading or execution.



Key Observations


1. Wave Structure (The Roadmap)

The index has respected its broader Elliott Wave structure well. The recent dip toward the 6,600 zone appears to have completed the corrective Wave (4) (Blue), aligning precisely with the lower boundary of the rising channel.

Price behavior since then suggests the market is transitioning into the early phase of Wave (5) — typically the final bullish leg of the cycle, subject to continued structural validation.

On the internal degree, the market appears to have completed a short-term 1–2 setup, with price beginning to initiate a potential Wave 3 extension within Wave (5).


2. Key Support Zones (The Floor)

  • 6,600 – Structural support and Wave (4) low, aligned with channel support

  • Invalidation Level: A daily close below 6,500 would invalidate this specific wave interpretation and require reassessment

The bounce from this zone reinforces the bullish structural framework.


3. Key Resistance & Reference Targets

  • 6,925 – 6,985: Immediate resistance zone (previous highs)

  • 7,497: Projection zone for the developing internal wave extension

  • 7,734 – 7,900: Broader reference zone for Wave (5) completion, based on channel and wave projections

These levels act as structural reference zones, not execution targets.


4. RSI and Momentum

  • RSI (Daily): ~49.75

Momentum has reset to neutral territory, neither overbought nor exhausted. Historically, such conditions allow room for trend continuation without immediate momentum constraints.


5. My Final View

The primary trend remains bullish, with the recent correction appearing mature rather than trend-breaking.

  • View: Structure favors continuation over reversal

  • Approach: Trend-following bias rather than counter-trend positioning

  • Risk Note: Structural validity holds as long as price remains above channel support


Disclaimer

This analysis is shared strictly for educational and macro-structural purposes.
It does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations. Always apply appropriate risk management.




https://in.tradingview.com/chart/SP500/uaOV1Uqj-S-P-500-Structural-Roadmap-Macro-Context/


#SP500

#SPX

#USMarkets

#MacroAnalysis

#MarketStructure

#GlobalMarkets

#IntermarketAnalysis

#RiskSentiment

#TechnicalAnalysis

#TradingView


US Dollar Index (DXY / USDX) – Long-Term Structure & Macro Context

 

Introduction

The US Dollar Index (DXY) plays a central role in shaping global liquidity, commodity cycles, and risk sentiment.
This analysis focuses on the long-term structural framework of the Dollar and is intended strictly for macro and inter-market context, not for FX trading or execution.




Key Observations


1. Wave Structure (Structural Transition Phase)

The Grand Super Cycle peak near 114.78 marked a major long-term resistance zone. Since that high, price behaviour suggests the Dollar has transitioned into a broader corrective regime, consistent with an A-B-C type structure.

The initial decline (Wave A) and subsequent relief rally (Wave B) appear mature. The current price action exhibits characteristics of a developing Wave C, though confirmation depends on sustained acceptance below key structural supports.

This phase reflects trend digestion rather than a sudden collapse.


2. Key Resistance Zones (The Ceiling)

105.00 – 107.00 remains the dominant lower-high resistance zone.
As long as price remains below this band, the broader bias stays corrective / bearish.

The rejection and breakdown from recent consolidation further indicate that upside strength is limited at this stage.


3. Key Support & Reference Zones (The Floor)

  • 96.73 – Immediate structural support within the corrective channel

  • 91.55 – Intermediate psychological and structural support

  • 87.55 – 83.64 – Major corrective reference zone, aligned with long-term trendline support

This lower zone represents a high-importance area where the correction could mature, not a guaranteed destination.


4. RSI & Momentum Perspective

Monthly RSI has slipped below the neutral 50 zone, confirming loss of long-term upside momentum.
The absence of bullish divergence suggests downside pressure may persist, though momentum should be monitored closely as price approaches major support regions.


5. Final View (Macro & Inter-Market Context)

The US Dollar Index appears to be entering a medium- to long-term corrective phase following an extended secular advance. While the broader structural framework remains intact, upside progress is likely to remain uneven and selective.

Historically, sustained Dollar weakness acts as a tailwind for commodities and selective risk assets. DXY should therefore be used as a confirmation tool rather than a standalone directional instrument.

If the corrective structure continues to unfold, the 87–84 region becomes a logical medium-term reference zone over the coming quarters.


Inter-Market Implication

  • Supportive for Gold & Silver

  • Constructive for Copper & Base Metals

  • Positive confirmation for risk assets, when aligned with structure


Disclaimer

This analysis is shared strictly for educational and macro-advisory purposes.
It does not constitute FX trading advice, execution guidance, or investment recommendations.


https://in.tradingview.com/chart/DXY/sdt04I32-US-Dollar-Index-DXY-USDX-Long-Term-Structure-Macro-Conte/

#DXY

#USDX

#DollarIndex

#MacroAnalysis

#GlobalMarkets

#IntermarketAnalysis

#CurrencyMarkets

#Commodities

#Gold

#Copper


COPPER (LME/MCX/COMEX): Rising Channel & Wave 5 Climax

 Ticker: CA1! (LME Copper) or COPPER1! (Choose one to link) Timeframe: Weekly (1W)


Key Observations

1. Wave Structure

  • The metal is strictly respecting a multi-year Rising Parallel Channel.

  • We are currently in Wave 5 (The final impulse leg). Historically, this wave brings a sharp rally followed by a deep correction.




2. Key Resistance Zones (The "Alt Top")

  • LME: $12,475 - $12,919

  • MCX: ₹1,125 - ₹1,189

  • COMEX: $5.54 - $5.73

  • Note: The upper trendline of the channel intersects exactly at these zones, creating a "Confluence of Resistance."

3. Key Support Zones

  • Trendline Support: The middle of the channel acts as the dynamic floor.

  • MCX Support: ₹1,095 and ₹1,065. As long as we hold above these, the path to the top is open.

4. RSI and Momentum (Caution)

  • RSI (Weekly): Readings are elevated (above 75-80 on MCX). This indicates an Overbought condition. Divergence is likely forming, suggesting that while price may hit a new high, momentum is fading.

5. My Final View The Trend is Mature Bullish.

  • Action: Look to Book Profits near the channel top.

  • Warning: A weekly rejection from the "Blue Box" will signal the start of a major correction (A-B-C).

  • Buying: Only recommended on dips near the channel midline, not at the top.


Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only. Trade with strict risk management.


https://www.tradingview.com/chart/CA1!/p3ft2Htm-LME-COPPER-The-Grand-Finale-Targeting-12-900-Wave-5/

https://in.tradingview.com/chart/COPPER1!/PoOIPQZK-MCX-COPPER-RSI-Overheated-Prepare-for-the-Final-Climax/

https://in.tradingview.com/chart/COPPER/ovBjfapS-COPPER-USD-Approaching-Channel-Top-Wave-5-Peak/


#Copper

#CopperMarket

#LMECopper

#XCUUSD

#MCXCopper

#BaseMetals

#MetalsMarket

#Commodities

#CommodityAnalysis

#MarketStructure

#TechnicalAnalysis

#TradingView


XTIUSD / WTI CRUDE, MCX CRUDE: Wave C in Motion – Next Stop $50 / ₹4,700 and Below?

XTIUSD (US Oil Spot) Timeframe: Weekly (1W)


Key Observations

1. Wave Structure

  • The market is deep within a massive A-B-C Correction following the Grand Super Cycle peak.

  • We are currently in Wave C (the final downward leg). This wave is active and is dragging prices toward the long-term trendline support.

  • The failure to break above the recent highs confirmed the start of this bearish sequence.

2. Key Resistance Zones

  • $68.55 (Red Line): This is the "Lid." As long as the price stays below this level, the Bears are in total control.

  • $62.30: Immediate resistance. Any bounce to this level is likely a selling opportunity.

3. Key Support Zones

  • $50.00 - $52.00 (Blue Trendline): This is the "Alt Bottom" target. The rising trendline intersects here, making it a high-probability reversal zone.

  • $44.55 (Orange Line): The ultimate structural floor.

4. RSI and Momentum

  • RSI (Weekly): Trading below 40. This confirms weak momentum with no signs of bullish divergence yet. The path of least resistance remains down.

5. My Final View (Straightforward & Simple) The trend is Bearish.

  • Action: Avoid aggressive Longs. The "knife" is still falling.

  • Strategy: Sell on rises near $60-$62.

  • Target: We expect a slow grind down to test the $50.00 psychological mark before a meaningful bottom is formed.


 MCX CRUDE: Wave C in Motion – Target ₹4,700 and Below 

(MCX Crude Oil Futures) Timeframe: Weekly (1W)

Key Observations

1. Wave Structure

  • Following the massive Super Cycle peak, Crude Oil is locked in an A-B-C Correction.

  • Wave A and Wave B are complete. We are currently navigating Wave C, which is historically the "flush out" move.

  • The breakdown from the recent consolidation confirms the bearish grip.

2. Key Resistance Zones

  • ₹5,681 (Red Line): This is the immediate "Ceiling." The Bears are defending this level. Any rise to this level is a selling opportunity.

  • ₹6,621: The major trend reversal point (Trendline Resistance).

3. Key Support & Targets

  • ₹4,703 (Alt Bottom): The first logical target where the "Blue Trendline" offers support.

  • ₹3,501 - ₹4,337 (Orange Box): This is the Final Destination for Wave C. This is where the Smart Money will enter for the next multi-year rally.

4. RSI and Momentum

  • RSI (Weekly): Trending at 42.50, well below the 50 neutral mark. This indicates that sellers are in control and the bottom is not yet in.

5. My Final View The trend is Bearish.

  • Action: Sell on Rise.

  • Warning: Do not catch the falling knife at ₹5,000. Wait for the deeper targets near ₹4,700 to book profit on shorts.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only. Trade at your own risk.


#CrudeOil
#WTI
#XTIUSD
#MCXCrude
#CrudeOilMarket
#EnergyMarkets
#Commodities
#CommodityAnalysis
#MarketStructure
#TechnicalAnalysis
#PriceAction
#TradingView


NIFTY 50: Decision Time – Breakout or Retest? (Roadmap)

NIFTY Timeframe: Daily (1D)


Key Observations

1. Wave Structure

  • The index is trading strictly within a Rising Parallel Channel, respecting the boundaries perfectly.

  • We are currently in the Blue Wave (3) sequence, which is the primary growth phase.

  • Internally, the market is pausing. It is deciding whether to launch the explosive Green Wave 3 immediately or retest the Green Wave 2 base first.





2. Key Resistance Zones

  • 26,278 (Red Horizontal Line): This is the "Roof." The market has struggled to close above this level. A Daily Close above this confirms the next rally.

  • 27,843 (Channel Top): Once 26,278 breaks, this is the first magnetic target.

3. Key Support Zones

  • 24,977 (Red Trendline): This is the "Floor." The channel support aligns perfectly here.

  • 24,655: The ultimate invalidation level for the short-term bullish view. As long as we hold this, the trend is Up.

4. RSI and Momentum

  • RSI (Daily): Currently neutral (around 50). This is healthy. It indicates the market has "cooled off" from the previous rally and is gathering energy for the next move without being overbought.

5. My Final View (Straightforward & Simple) The trend is Bullish but currently stuck in a "Waiting Room."

  • Action: Do NOT chase in the middle.

  • Buy Strategy: Wait for a dip near 25,000 (Low Risk) OR a confirmed breakout above 26,278 (High Momentum).

  • Targets: 27,840 ➔ 30,720.



Update (Dec 18):
Nifty remains below trendline resistance. Until a daily close above 26278–26326, corrective pressure toward 25500–25300 cannot be ruled out. Primary trend remains intact, but patience is required.


Update (Dec 20):

No structural change. Consolidation within trend continues. Will update only if key levels are violated.


Update (Dec 22)


NIFTY has broken above the previous swing high and is holding above the breakout zone.
Price is advancing within a rising channel, and recent gaps appear to be trend-continuation gaps rather than exhaustion signals.

Momentum remains constructive, with RSI holding in a neutral-positive range and no divergence visible at this stage.

The broader structure continues to favor upside as long as price remains above the highlighted support band and trendline.
An alternate corrective scenario (Alt 2) has been marked for risk awareness, but it remains a low-probability path unless key supports are violated.

No prediction — structure and levels will guide the next move.


Structure intact. Levels decide.




Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only. Trade at your own risk.



https://in.tradingview.com/chart/NIFTY/t4FOx1Fe-NIFTY-50-Decision-Time-Breakout-or-Retest-Roadmap/

#NIFTY

#NIFTY50

#IndianMarkets

#StockMarketIndia

#IndexAnalysis

#MarketStructure

#TechnicalAnalysis

#PriceAction

#TradingView

#BiggerPicture


XAUUSD, MCX GOLD: Wave 4 Consolidation Ends - Target $4,950

XAUUSD: Wave 4 Consolidation Ends - Target $4,950 Ticker: XAUUSD (Spot Gold) 

Timeframe: Daily (1D) Analysis: Elliott Wave / Macro


20-DEC-2025

Update:
Price is consolidating near a key resistance zone. An alternate Wave (4) scenario has been marked to account for extended consolidation.

However, as long as price holds above the highlighted support band, the broader bullish structure remains intact and favors an eventual upside continuation toward higher targets.


16-DEC-2025 

The Structural View: Spot Gold is strictly following the Elliott Wave Grand Super Cycle. We are currently witnessing the Wave (4) correction/consolidation phase, which is essential to build momentum for the final rally.


Technical Breakdown:

  1. The Base: The breakout above the $4,189 level (Blue Line) confirmed the bullish intent. This level now acts as critical structural support.

  2. Wave 5 Sequence: We are initiating the final Wave (5). The internal subdivision shows we are preparing for the "Green Wave 3" extension.

  3. RSI Reset: The consolidation has allowed the RSI to reset from overbought levels, giving the bulls room to push higher without exhaustion.

Key Levels to Watch:

  • Crucial Support: $4,247 (Immediate) & $4,189 (Structural).

  • Intermediate Target: $4,630

  • Grand Target (Cycle Peak): $4,825 - $4,947

Verdict: Remain Bullish above $4,247. The path of least resistance remains up towards the $5,000 psychological zone.



MCX GOLD: Wave 5 Begins - Target ₹1,57,000

The Macro View: Gold has successfully bounced from the Wave 4 correction zone. The structure on the Daily timeframe confirms we are initiating Wave (5) of the Grand Super Cycle.


Technical Observations:

  1. Support Held: The price respected the 126,134 base (Wave 2 low), confirming the bullish structure.

  2. Current Wave: We are currently in the internal Green Wave 3, which is historically the strongest part of the trend.

  3. Time Cycle: The next major cycle turn is expected in late December/early Jan, which should coincide with a breakout above 140k.

Key Levels:

  • Invalidation Level: Close below 131,700.

  • Target Zone 1: 138,235

  • Target Zone 2: 152,425 - 157,913

 

Disclaimer: Educational analysis only. Manage your risk. Consult your financial advisor.



Update (Dec 18): Price action remains within the Wave (4) consolidation range. No structural change observed.


https://in.tradingview.com/chart/XAUUSD/tifbnrvL-XAUUSD-Wave-4-Consolidation-Ends-Target-4-950-Ticker-XAUUSD/

https://in.tradingview.com/chart/GOLD1!/a0yMG6HM-MCX-GOLD-Wave-5-Begins-Target-1-57-000/ 


#XAUUSD

#MCXGold

#Gold

#GoldAnalysis

#Commodities

#PreciousMetals

#MarketStructure

#TechnicalAnalysis

#PriceAction

#TradingView

#IndianMarkets


Gold XAUUSD Commodities ElliottWave Long

Friday, 12 December 2025

Bank Nifty Outlook: Structure, Levels, and the Bigger Wave 5 Path

 Bank Nifty continues to trade inside a well-defined rising channel after completing an impulsive 5-wave advance from the October lows. The recent correction has been shallow and held firmly above key channel support, suggesting that a larger trend continuation may be underway.

Price is currently attempting to form a higher low above the 59500-59150 zone, which keeps the bullish structure intact.



1. Wave Structure

  • The index has completed a clear 1-2-3-4-5 sequence.

  • Wave 4 was shallow and did not break structural supports.

  • Price is now attempting to begin the next leg, which could unfold as the larger Wave (5).

As long as the index holds above the mid-channel, the bullish wave count remains valid.


2. Key Resistance Zones

These levels must be cleared for strong continuation:

  • 60150 – First breakout trigger

  • 60500 – Short-term resistance

  • 61140 – Mid-channel breakout level

  • 62770 – Wave 3 zone of the larger degree

  • 63900 – Upper channel resistance

  • 68140 – Big-picture Wave 5 target zone

A sustained close above 60500 is the first confirmation.
A breakout above 61140 ignites momentum toward 62770 and 63900.


3. Key Support Zones

Supports remain layered and well-structured:

  • 59500 – First immediate support

  • 59150 – Strong base support

  • 58570 – Channel support

  • 57628 – Major wave 2 retracement region

  • 56850 – Line-in-the-sand support

  • 55355 – Last strong support (wave 2 box)

A drop below 58570 delays the bullish view, while a fall below 57628 shifts sentiment to short-term bearish.


4. RSI and Momentum

RSI is rising from lower levels, showing early momentum recovery after a corrective decline.
No bearish divergence at the moment, which supports the continuation bias.


5. Overall View

Bank Nifty maintains a bullish bias as long as it trades above 58570-57628.
The structure continues to favor buy on dips until the rising channel is broken.

A breakout above 60150-60500 could begin a new leg of upside, targeting:

  • 61140

  • 62770

  • 63900

  • 68140 (bigger picture)

Short-term dips into 59500 or 59150 remain attractive zones for buyers as long as the overall channel structure is protected.


Disclaimer

This analysis is for educational purposes only and reflects personal market interpretation.
Not investment or trading advice.



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https://in.tradingview.com/chart/BANKNIFTY/TfZ9Boju-Bank-Nifty-Outlook-Structure-Levels-and-the-Bigger-Wave-5-Pat/

Sensex Trend Update – Bullish or Bearish?

 

SENSEX – Key Update | 3 Possible Paths Ahead

Structure:
Sensex continues to respect the medium-term bullish channel. The recent pullback into the support band around 84,300 – 83,700 has likely completed wave 4, and the index is now attempting a fresh upside rotation.


πŸ”΅ Scenario 1 – Bullish Continuation (Most Probable)

  • Price reclaimed the breakout zone near 85,291 – 85,655.

  • Sustaining above this band confirms upward strength.

  • Immediate target zone → 86,934 – 88,058 (Wave 3 internal zone).

  • Strong extension possible into the 90,355 cluster, aligning with Wave (3) resistance.

Trigger: Clean breakout above 85,655 → momentum opens toward the blue target box.


🟑 Scenario 2 – Deeper Wave (2) Retest (Moderate Probability)

  • If Sensex re-rejects 85,291 / 85,655, it may revisit the orange demand zone.

  • Key support cluster → 83,721 – 82,191.

  • This zone is still bullish structurally as long as 81,100 is protected.

  • A dip into this zone prepares a stronger Wave 3 rally later.


πŸ”΄ Scenario 3 – Bearish Breakdown (Low Probability)

  • Breakdown below 82,191 → opens retest of major weekly support at 81,100 → 80,482.

  • Only a close below 79,734 invalidates the bullish Elliott Wave structure.


πŸ“Œ RSI Observation

  • RSI has turned upward from mid-range, matching price reaction from support.

  • No bearish divergence currently.

  • Supports probability of a continued upward leg.


🎯 Major Levels

Upside:
86,160 → 86,934 → 88,058 → 89,555 → 90,355 → 92,450 → 94,555

Downside:
84,677 → 83,721 → 82,191 → 81,100 → 80,482 → 79,734 (critical)


πŸ“˜ Summary

Sensex is at a decision point. Holding above 85,291–85,655 keeps bulls fully in control, targeting 86.9k → 88k → 90.3k.
Rejection here only delays the upside; deeper support test remains structurally bullish as long as 79,734 holds.


πŸ“Œ Disclaimer

This is purely for educational and chart-study purposes. Not financial advice. Do your own research before trading.



#Sensex #BSE #Nifty #IndianMarkets #StockMarketIndia #TechnicalAnalysis #TradingView #ChartAnalysis #PriceAction #ElliottWave #MarketOutlook #SwingTrading #IndexTrading #TrendAnalysis #SupportAndResistance #BreakoutTrading #BullishSetup #RSI #StockMarketNews #TraderCommunity #InvestingIndia


https://in.tradingview.com/chart/SENSEX/GXiaptw3-Sensex-Key-Levels-and-Market-Outlook/