MarketOmorph — Structure-first market research across indices, commodities, metals, and FX.

Focused on price behavior, time correction, and inter-market context. No predictions.

Tuesday, 30 December 2025

Silver and the Illusion of the “Blow-Off Top”: A Structural Perspective

 

Introduction

Every major rally in Silver revives the same discussion:

“This looks like 1980.”
“This looks like 2011.”
“It must be a blow-off top.”

This article explains why price similarity without structural context is misleading, and what actually matters at market extremes.


Section 1: The Problem with Historical Price Anchoring

  • 1980 and 2011 are visually dramatic

  • But:

    • They occurred at different degrees

    • Under different macro and structural conditions

  • Price alone does not define a top — structure does

Section 2: What the Monthly Structure Shows

  • Silver has respected a rising channel for decades

  • Long consolidations = energy storage

  • Breakouts from such bases rarely end immediately

  • The recent move cleared a multi-decade resistance zone

This is not exhaustion — this is expansion.

Section 3: Momentum Is Not a Timing Tool

  • High RSI ≠ immediate reversal

  • In impulsive regimes:

    • RSI stays elevated for extended periods

  • Tops form when:

    • Momentum diverges

    • Structure breaks

    • Follow-through confirms

None of these are confirmed yet.

Section 4: What Would Actually Signal a Major Top

Watch for:

  • Clear 5-wave completion at higher degree

  • Monthly bearish divergence

  • Breakdown of rising channel

  • Impulsive decline, not overlap

Until then:

Volatility ≠ reversal

Conclusion

Silver is not topping because it “looks high.”
Markets turn when structure ends, not when fear begins.

Structure remains intact.


Educational view | Structure-based analysis | No predictions

https://in.tradingview.com/chart/XAGUSD/U0fSPwao-Silver-Why-Historical-Highs-Alone-Don-t-Define-Market-Tops/


Silver #ElliottWave #MarketStructure #Commodities #TechnicalAnalysis #XAGUSD

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AUDUSD vs DXY: Understanding Macro FX Structure & Why Commodities Matter

🌍 AUDUSD vs DXY: Understanding Macro FX Structure & Why Commodities Matter

(A Structural, Time-Based Market Study — Not a Forecast)

Introduction

Foreign exchange markets rarely move in isolation.
Currencies, commodities, and macro indices are deeply interconnected — yet most analysis looks at them individually, leading to premature conclusions.

This study takes a structure-first approach to understand:

  • Why DXY (U.S. Dollar Index) is not trending despite volatility

  • Why AUDUSD remains structurally constrained

  • How commodities influence AUD, but cannot override macro FX structure

  • What kind of price action would actually matter for a genuine trend shift

This is not a prediction.
It is an explanation of what the market is currently doing — and what it is not doing.

1️⃣ DXY – A Time Correction, Not a Trend Reversal

On higher timeframes, DXY continues to exhibit:

  • Overlapping price action

  • Range expansion without follow-through

  • Momentum oscillating around equilibrium

This behaviour is typical of a time-based correction, where:

  • The market digests prior trends

  • Volatility increases, but direction does not resolve

  • False breakouts become frequent

Key Insight:
A corrective DXY does not imply USD weakness.
It signals indecision and consolidation, not trend exhaustion.

Until DXY transitions into a clear impulsive decline, the broader USD structure remains intact.

2️⃣ AUDUSD – Why the “USD Weakness” Narrative Fails

AUDUSD is often used as a proxy for USD weakness.
However, higher-timeframe structure tells a different story.

What we observe structurally:

  • Price remains inside a long-term corrective channel

  • Upside rallies lack impulsive characteristics

  • Momentum fails to shift into a sustained bullish regime

Despite multiple recovery attempts, AUDUSD has not transitioned into a new trend phase.

Structural conclusion:
If USD were genuinely entering a bearish macro cycle, AUDUSD would already be advancing impulsively.
It is not.

3️⃣ Commodities & AUD – Strong Relationship, Clear Limits

Australia is a commodity-linked economy, and AUD is highly sensitive to:

  • Iron ore

  • Copper

  • Gold

  • Broad risk sentiment

When commodities rise:

  • AUD often strengthens

  • Short-term rallies appear convincing

However, commodities influence AUD only within the boundaries of FX structure.

This distinction is critical:

  • Commodities can support corrective rallies

  • They cannot override unresolved macro FX structures

That is exactly what we see now:

  • Commodities showing strength

  • AUD responding, but only inside a corrective framework

  • No impulsive confirmation

Therefore:
Commodity strength ≠ AUD bull market
It only reinforces internal movements, not structural transitions.

4️⃣ Why Comparing DXY + AUDUSD Matters

Looking at DXY alone is incomplete.
Looking at AUDUSD alone is misleading.

Together, they reveal the macro truth:

MarketStructural Status
DXYTime-based correction
AUDUSDLong-term corrective structure
CommoditiesSupportive, not decisive

This alignment confirms:

The market is transitioning in time, not resolving in price.

5️⃣ What Would Actually Signal a Structural Change?

To avoid noise, only structural evidence matters.

For DXY:

  • Clean impulsive breakdown

  • Loss of major higher-timeframe support

  • Momentum expansion (not divergence)

For AUDUSD:

  • Clear 5-wave impulsive advance

  • Sustained breakout from corrective boundaries

  • RSI regime shift (holding higher ranges)

Until these occur, all moves remain corrective by definition.

Conclusion

Markets do not move because of opinions — they move because of structure.

Right now:

  • USD is not trending lower

  • AUD is not trending higher

  • Commodities are influential, but not decisive

This is a macro transition phase, dominated by time, overlap, and false signals.

Patience is not optional in such environments — it is required.

Structure always resolves — but only after time has done its work.

Disclaimer

This analysis is for educational and structural study purposes only.
It does not constitute investment advice or trading recommendations.



#AUDUSD

#DXY

#ForexAnalysis

#MarketStructure

#ElliottWave

#EwavesJournal
#StructureOverPrediction
#PriceAction
#EducationalAnalysis

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GBPUSD: Understanding the Ongoing Corrective C Wave

GBPUSD remains in a broader corrective environment, with price action unfolding within a clearly defined channel. The current structure best fits a C wave in progress, following a completed A–B correction.

Importantly, the advance lacks impulsive characteristics and continues to respect corrective boundaries. Momentum remains supportive but not extreme, suggesting continuation within the structure rather than immediate exhaustion.

Until price either breaks decisively above the corrective channel or loses channel support, this remains a structural correction, not a trend reversal.

This analysis is based purely on price structure and momentum behaviour, without relying on indicators or sentiment.

⚠️ DISCLAIMER

This analysis is for educational and structural study purposes only.
It is not financial advice or a trade recommendation.
Markets involve risk — always manage exposure responsibly.


#GBPUSD #ElliottWave #CorrectiveStructure #MarketStructure #ForexAnalysis


https://in.tradingview.com/chart/GBPUSD/1Uw9K6rX-GBPUSD-C-Wave-Unfolding-Inside-a-Corrective-Channel/

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USDCAD: Why the Trend Remains Bullish Despite Extended Wave 5

 Markets often confuse extension with exhaustion.

USDCAD is a textbook example of why that assumption can be dangerous.


🔹 Big Picture Context

On the monthly timeframe, USDCAD continues to respect a long-standing rising channel, confirming that the dominant trend remains intact. The current phase fits best with an extended Wave 5, characterized by:

  • Time-based consolidation

  • Overlapping price action

  • Momentum digestion without structural damage

This is not a reversal pattern — it is a continuation structure until proven otherwise.

🔹 Why This Is Not a Top

  • No confirmed bearish divergence on higher timeframes

  • No impulsive downside break

  • No channel violation

Extended Wave 5 phases are known to move slowly, frustrate participants, and consolidate internally before the next directional resolution.

🔹 What Would Change the View

The bullish structure would only come into question if price breaks and sustains below the rising channel, signaling a higher-degree trend transition.

Until then, the path of least resistance remains structurally upward.

🧠 Key Takeaway

Trend maturity does not equal trend termination.

Structure always leads. Emotion follows.

Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational and research purposes only. It is not investment advice. Markets involve risk.


https://in.tradingview.com/chart/USDCAD/hiREZrsf-USDCAD-Monthly-Wave-5-Extended-Structure-Intact/


#MarketStructure

#ElliottWave

#USDCAD

#ForexAnalysis

#WaveTheory

#TechnicalAnalysis

#TrendStructure

#MacroMarkets

#PriceAction

#EwavesJournal


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NIFTY at Highs: Why Time-Based Corrections Confuse Most Traders

 

Introduction

Markets don’t always correct through sharp declines. At higher degrees, corrections often unfold in time rather than price, especially near major highs.

NIFTY’s current behaviour is a classic example of this phenomenon.


What Is Happening Now?

  • Price remains within a rising long-term channel

  • No impulsive downside structure

  • No acceleration to the upside either

  • Momentum (RSI) holding in a neutral–bullish range

This combination strongly suggests a pause for digestion, not distribution.

Why This Phase Is Misunderstood

Most traders expect corrections to be fast and visible.
When price moves sideways near highs, it creates confusion:

  • Bulls expect continuation

  • Bears expect reversal

Structurally, however, this behaviour is normal and healthy in an ongoing trend.

Structural Interpretation

  • The broader trend remains intact

  • This is not a breakdown scenario

  • It is a transition phase, allowing the market to absorb prior gains

Until structure breaks, assumptions of trend change remain premature.

Key Takeaway

Time-based corrections test patience, not conviction.

The market is not obligated to move every day. Sometimes, not moving is the signal.

Conclusion

As long as NIFTY respects its structural supports, the long-term trend remains unchanged.
Silence during such phases is often better than forced opinions.



Disclaimer

This analysis is shared purely for educational and structural reference purposes only.
It does not constitute investment advice, trading advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

Markets involve risk. Readers are advised to do their own research and consult a qualified financial advisor before making any decisions.
The author is not responsible for any losses arising from the use of this information.



NIFTY Analysis, Elliott Wave India, Market Structure, Time-Based Correction, Indian Stock Market, Trend Structure, Price Action Analysis


https://in.tradingview.com/chart/NIFTY/8kX5mNtV-NIFTY-Time-Based-Consolidation-Near-Highs-Structure-Intact/

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Ewaves Journal: A Journey of Market Structure (2016–Present)

Evolution of Ewaves Journal

Ewaves Journal did not start in its current form.

The work evolved through different phases and identities —
reflecting deeper understanding of markets over time:

• Raj Technical Analysis – early learning and observation phase
• Market Research Analysis – structure and multi-market comparison
• Ewaves Journal – refined focus on Elliott Wave, trend structure, and key levels

While the name evolved, the core principle remained unchanged:
markets move in structure, not in narratives.

Crossing 100,000 views is not an endpoint,
but a confirmation that consistent, noise-free analysis has value.


#EwavesJournal #MarketStructure #ElliottWave #PriceAction

#TrendStructure #MacroStructure #GoldAnalysis #SilverAnalysis

#StructureOverNoise


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Saturday, 27 December 2025

🟡 WHY GOLD & SILVER ARE BULLISH: A STRUCTURAL COMPARATIVE STUDY

 

(DXY vs Gold vs Silver | COMEX & MCX Perspective)

Introduction

Gold and Silver do not move in isolation.
Their long-term trends are deeply connected to the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY).

Instead of relying on news or narratives, this study explains why Gold and Silver remain structurally bullish, using a comparative, multi-market approach:

  • DXY (macro driver)

  • Gold & Silver – COMEX (global price discovery)

  • Gold & Silver – MCX (local reflection of global structure)

This analysis is based purely on price structure, Elliott Wave context, and momentum behaviour.

1️⃣ DXY – The Base Case (Macro Driver)

Structural Status (Monthly)

  • DXY completed a major impulsive cycle in 2022

  • Since then, price action has turned:

    • Overlapping

    • Time-consuming

    • Range-bound

This behaviour fits a complex corrective phase (W–X–Y), not a new uptrend.

Key Structural Zones (Context Only)

  • Resistance / Supply: 100 – 103

  • Balance zone: 97 – 98

  • Corrective supports: 92 – 94 → deeper 87 – 84

  • Invalidation: Sustained monthly close above 105–106

Momentum Insight

  • Monthly RSI near 50

  • No impulsive momentum

  • Confirms a non-trending / corrective dollar environment

👉 Conclusion:
As long as DXY remains corrective, sustained dollar strength is limited.


2️⃣ GOLD – COMEX vs MCX (Global + Local Alignment)

COMEX GOLD (XAUUSD) – Weekly / Monthly Structure

  • Gold is in higher-degree Wave III

  • Internal Wave (3) is developing

  • Price is expanding inside a rising long-term channel

  • Corrections remain shallow and controlled

Momentum:

  • RSI elevated → normal during Wave III

  • No major bearish divergence


MCX GOLD – Structural Validation

MCX Gold mirrors COMEX structure with no contradiction.

Key structural references:

  • Primary support: ~94,950

  • Major breakout / polarity zone: ~1,17,600

  • Trend health: Holding above rising monthly channel

  • Invalidation: Sustained monthly close below the channel

👉 MCX Gold is not an independent market — it reflects global COMEX structure + currency effects.


3️⃣ SILVER – COMEX vs MCX (Higher Beta Confirmation)

COMEX SILVER (XAGUSD) – Monthly Structure

  • Silver is also in higher-degree Wave III

  • Internal Wave (3) is in progress

  • Structure is impulsive, not corrective

Momentum:

  • RSI elevated → strong expansion phase

  • Silver naturally shows higher volatility than Gold


MCX SILVER – Structural Validation

MCX Silver confirms the same cycle with amplified moves.

Key structural references:

  • Primary support: ~1,40,000 zone

  • Major breakout / polarity level: ~1,91,000

  • Trend health: Holding above prior breakout

  • Invalidation: Sustained weekly close below breakout zone

👉 Silver acts as a higher-beta version of Gold, expanding faster when structure is bullish.

4️⃣ HOW DXY, GOLD & SILVER FIT TOGETHER (IMPORTANT)

MarketStructureImplication
DXYCorrective / range-boundDollar strength limited
GoldImpulsive Wave IIICapital seeks stability
SilverImpulsive Wave III (higher beta)Expansion & volatility

This is a classic inter-market alignment seen during:

  • Weak or corrective dollar phases

  • Hard-asset expansion cycles

👉 This alignment is structural, not news-driven.

Key Things to Note (Very Important)

  • Gold & Silver are bullish because DXY is corrective

  • Fundamentals may explain moves later, but price structure leads

  • Corrections in metals are part of trend, not trend failure

  • MCX prices confirm, not contradict, COMEX structure

Summary

  • DXY is in a complex corrective phase

  • Gold & Silver are in higher-degree Wave III

  • COMEX and MCX structures are fully aligned

  • As long as DXY remains corrective, precious metals retain structural support

Final Note

This analysis is structural and educational.
It explains why Gold and Silver are bullish — not how to trade them.

Price leads. Structure explains. Narratives follow.

🔔 Disclaimer

This content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.


DXY vs Gold vs Silver

Gold Silver Elliott Wave Analysis

Dollar Index Impact on Gold

Why Gold and Silver are Bullish

Gold Silver Macro Structure

XAUUSD XAGUSD Analysis

MCX Gold Silver Outlook

Gold Silver Long Term Structure

Precious Metals vs Dollar Index



#Gold
#Silver
#DXY
#ElliottWave
#MarketStructure
#MacroAnalysis
#Commodities
#LongTermTrends

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U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) Monthly Elliott Wave Analysis: Bigger Picture, Key Levels & What to Watch

 

Introduction

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) plays a critical role in global markets, especially for commodities like Gold and Silver.
Instead of focusing on short-term moves or macro headlines, this analysis studies the monthly price structure of DXY using Elliott Wave principles, Fibonacci retracements, and momentum behaviour.


The goal is not to predict, but to understand where DXY stands in its long-term cycle and what that implies structurally.

Big Picture Overview (Monthly)

DXY completed a major impulsive advance into the 2022 peak near the 114–115 region.

That move fits well as a five-wave (I–II–III–IV–V) impulse, supported by:

  • Strong upside momentum

  • Extended trend channel

  • Exhaustion signals near the peak

Since that high, DXY behaviour has changed character.

Post-2022: From Impulse to Correction

After the 2022 peak, price action has become:

  • Overlapping

  • Time-consuming

  • Range-bound

  • Momentum-neutral

These are not characteristics of a new impulsive uptrend.

Instead, DXY appears to be in a complex corrective phase, best interpreted as a W–X–Y type correction.

This means:

  • Declines and rallies are both corrective

  • No clear long-term trend dominance

  • Sideways-to-downward bias over time

Why This Is Likely a Complex Correction (W–X–Y)

Several factors support this view:

1. Price Behaviour

  • Rallies fail to extend impulsively

  • Declines overlap with prior swings

  • Structure lacks directional clarity

2. Channel Breakdown

  • DXY broke below its long-term rising channel post-2022

  • Former trend support is now acting as resistance

3. RSI Behaviour (Monthly)

  • RSI hovering around the 50 zone

  • No sustained bullish momentum

  • Typical of corrective, non-trending environments

Together, these point to distribution and correction, not trend continuation.

Key Levels to Watch (Context Only)

These are structural reference levels, not trading signals.

🔹 Resistance / Supply Zone

  • 100 – 103

    • Heavy supply area

    • Former support turned resistance

    • Rallies into this zone are corrective in nature

🔹 Balance / Pivot Zone

  • 97 – 98

    • Current equilibrium area

    • Price often reacts and consolidates here

🔹 Corrective Support Zones

  • 92 – 94

    • First major corrective magnet

  • 87 – 84

    • Deeper corrective zone (alternate Y scenario)

These zones represent where the correction could mature, not guaranteed destinations.

🔻 Invalidation Level (Important)

  • Sustained monthly close above 105–106

    • Would force reassessment of the corrective thesis

    • Until then, the correction remains dominant

What This Means for Markets (Conceptual)

When DXY is:

  • Impulsive and trending → pressure on commodities

  • Corrective and range-bound → supportive for commodities

The current DXY structure aligns well with:

  • Strength in Gold

  • Strength in Silver

  • Relative underperformance of the dollar

This is structural alignment, not coincidence.

Important Things to Note (For Readers)

✅ Do

  • Use this to understand macro structure

  • Expect choppy rallies and pullbacks

  • Be patient in non-trending environments

❌ Don’t

  • Assume every rally is bullish

  • Expect straight-line moves

  • Use this as a short-term trading signal

Complex corrections are slow and frustrating by nature.

Summary

  • DXY completed a major impulsive cycle into 2022

  • Current phase is a complex corrective structure (W–X–Y)

  • Price action is overlapping and momentum is neutral

  • 100–103 acts as resistance

  • 92–94 and 87–84 are key corrective zones

  • Corrective structure remains valid below 105–106


DXY Elliott Wave Analysis
US Dollar Index Monthly Chart
Dollar Index Long Term Outlook
DXY Market Structure
Elliott Wave DXY
#DXY
#USDollar
#ElliottWave
#MarketStructure
#MacroAnalysis

Disclaimer

This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only. It represents a technical perspective based on Elliott Wave theory and should not be considered financial advice.


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Silver (XAGUSD) Monthly Elliott Wave Analysis: Bigger Picture with Key Levels

 

Introduction

Silver (XAGUSD) is best analysed through long-term price structure, not short-term volatility or headlines.
This monthly Elliott Wave analysis focuses on the bigger picture, identifying where Silver stands within its long-term cycle and outlining key structural levels for awareness.


This study is based purely on price behaviour, Elliott Wave structure, Fibonacci alignment, and momentum — not news or fundamentals.

Bigger Picture Structure (Monthly)

Silver appears to be progressing through Wave III of a higher degree, with internal Wave (3) currently developing.

This phase is typically characterised by:

  • Strong directional movement

  • Periodic sharp corrections

  • Extended momentum phases that often last longer than expected

The broader structure remains constructive and intact.

Key Structural Levels (Context Only)

These levels are reference points, not buy/sell signals.

🔹 Primary Structural Support

  • ~30.13

    • Major base and polarity zone

    • Long-term structure remains valid above this level

🔹 Major Breakout / Polarity Zone

  • ~49.80

    • Former resistance, now a key structural reference

    • Acts as an important trend-defining level

🔹 Trend Health

  • Lower boundary of the rising monthly channel

    • Normal area for pullbacks during Wave III

    • Tests here do not imply trend failure

🔹 Invalidation (Long-Term)

  • Sustained monthly close below the rising channel

    • Would require a reassessment of the Wave III thesis

Until then, the primary bullish structure remains intact.

Resistance: How to Interpret It Safely

In higher-degree Wave III, resistance should be viewed as structural pause / reaction zones, not fixed ceilings.

  • Upper Fibonacci extensions mark areas where:

    • Momentum may cool

    • Consolidation or corrections may occur

  • These zones are not targets and should not be used for prediction

Structure takes priority over price projection.

Fibonacci Alignment (Big Picture)

  • 1.618 (~47–49): Achieved (major breakout zone)

  • 2.618 (~65–66): Current reaction area

  • 3.77 (~87) & 4.236 (~95): Higher structural pause zones

  • 6.1 (~130): Very long-term structural extension (not near-term)

Fibonacci levels here provide context, not timing.

RSI Behaviour (Monthly)

  • RSI is elevated, which is normal during higher-degree Wave III

  • No major bearish divergence is visible

  • Momentum supports continuation, with expected cooling phases

This behaviour is consistent with a developing impulsive phase, not exhaustion.

Summary

  • Silver is in higher-degree Wave III

  • Internal Wave (3) is developing

  • 30.13 is key long-term structural support

  • 49.80 is a major polarity level

  • Trend remains valid while price holds above the rising monthly channel

  • Corrections are part of the process, not trend failure


Disclaimer

This analysis is for educational purposes only. It reflects a technical perspective based on Elliott Wave theory and should not be considered financial advice.



Silver Elliott Wave Analysis
XAGUSD Monthly Outlook
Silver Long Term Structure
Silver Wave III Analysis
Silver Market Structure


#Silver
#XAGUSD
#ElliottWave
#MarketStructure
#LongTermTrends
#Commodities


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Gold (XAUUSD) Weekly Elliott Wave Analysis: Bigger Picture with Key Levels


Introduction

Gold’s long-term trend is best understood through market structure, not short-term reactions.
This weekly Elliott Wave analysis focuses on the bigger picture, highlighting where Gold stands within its long-term cycle and defining key structural levels — without encouraging impulsive decisions.


This study is based purely on price structure, Fibonacci relationships, and momentum, not news or fundamentals.

Bigger Picture Structure (Weekly)

Gold is progressing through Wave III of a higher degree, with internal Wave (3) currently developing.

This phase is typically:

  • Persistent

  • Underestimated early

  • Accompanied by periodic corrections that do not end the trend

The overall structure remains constructive and intact.

Key Structural Levels (Important Section)

These levels are contextual reference points, not buy/sell signals.

🔹 Primary Structural Support

  • ~2070 region

    • Former breakout zone

    • Long-term structural pivot

    • Holds trend integrity on a weekly basis

As long as price holds above this zone, the higher-degree bullish structure remains valid.

🔹 Secondary Support (Trend Health)

  • Lower boundary of the rising weekly channel

    • Expected to be tested during corrections

    • Normal behaviour within Wave III

Pullbacks into this zone are structural pauses, not trend failure.

🔹 Invalidation Level (Very Important)

  • Sustained weekly break below the rising channel

    • Would force a reassessment of the Wave III count

    • Suggests a larger corrective phase instead of continuation

Until this occurs, the primary bullish structure remains intact.

Resistance: How to Think About It (Without Confusion)

In a higher-degree Wave III, traditional resistance levels are often temporary pauses, not ceilings.

  • Fibonacci extensions above current price represent long-term structural zones

  • They are not near-term targets

  • Price may consolidate or correct before progressing further

The focus should remain on structure and momentum, not exact upside levels.

What This Analysis Is — and Is Not

This analysis IS:

  • A long-term structural study

  • Designed to improve perspective

  • Focused on risk awareness, not prediction

This analysis IS NOT:

  • A trading signal

  • A timing forecast

  • A guarantee of continuation

Summary (Key Takeaways)

  • Gold is in Wave III (higher degree)

  • Internal Wave (3) is developing

  • ~2070 is a key long-term support zone

  • Trend remains valid while price holds above the weekly channel

  • Corrections are normal and expected within this phase


Disclaimer

This analysis is for educational purposes only. It reflects a technical, structural perspective based on Elliott Wave theory and is not financial advice.

Gold Elliott Wave Analysis
XAUUSD Weekly Outlook
Gold Long Term Structure
Gold Wave III Analysis
Gold Market Structure

#Gold
#XAUUSD
#ElliottWave
#MarketStructure
#LongTermTrends

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Wednesday, 24 December 2025

NIFTY 50: Transition Phase — Time-Based Wave (4) vs Final Extension

 NIFTY continues to trade within a long-term rising channel, maintaining the integrity of the broader bullish structure from the pandemic low. However, recent price behavior suggests the market is no longer in a clean trending phase and may be transitioning into a structural digestion phase.

Primary Structure

From the 2020 low, NIFTY developed a clear impulsive advance, with Wave (3) delivering strong upside momentum. Since then, price action has slowed, overlap has increased, and progress has become more rotational than directional.

Despite this, no major structural support has been violated, and the long-term trend remains intact.

Alternate Interpretation: Wave (4) in Progress

An equally valid interpretation is that NIFTY has already completed a higher-degree Wave (3) and is now unfolding a time-based Wave (4) correction.

Historically, NIFTY’s Wave (4) phases tend to be:

  • Sideways and frustrating

  • Volatile with sharp pullbacks and quick recoveries

  • Characterized by sector rotation rather than index expansion

A close parallel can be observed in the early-2022 phase, where the market consolidated for an extended period while preserving the larger bullish trend.

The current price behavior, channel interaction, and momentum profile align well with this pattern.

Momentum Perspective

Weekly RSI is holding in a neutral-bullish zone but lacks the expansion typically seen at the start of a fresh Wave (5). This supports the view that the market is consolidating through time rather than correcting deeply through price.

Importantly, RSI is not breaking down — arguing against a bearish trend reversal.

How to Approach This Phase

At this stage, the market does not reward aggressive index positioning. A disciplined approach is to:

  • Assume Wave (4) behavior (range, volatility, muted returns)

  • Avoid chasing breakouts without clear impulsive confirmation

  • Avoid aggressive shorts while the channel structure holds

  • Let price prove the start of Wave (5), rather than anticipating it

What Would Change the View

  • A clean, impulsive breakout with momentum expansion would favor the start of Wave (5)

  • Prolonged range-bound action with rotational behavior would confirm a broader Wave (4) phase

Until one of these resolves decisively, patience remains the edge.

Conclusion

NIFTY appears to be in a structural transition zone — not bearish, but no longer in a strong trending phase. The broader trend remains intact, but index-level returns may stay muted until the market clearly exits this consolidation.

Trend intact. Direction unclear. Patience required.

Educational & structural analysis only. Not a buy/sell recommendation.


https://in.tradingview.com/chart/NIFTY/1IXISxi9-NIFTY-50-Transition-Phase-Time-Based-Wave-4-vs-Final-Extn/

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Tuesday, 23 December 2025

XAGUSD (Silver): Impulsive Structure Intact, Consolidation Before Continuation

Silver continues to trade within a well-defined rising channel on the 3H timeframe, maintaining a clear bullish structure from the November lows. Despite short-term fluctuations, the broader price action remains orderly and directional, showing no signs of structural breakdown.


Update (Dec 2025):

Silver has now reached 73.67, completing a long structural journey that began near 22.65 in 2023.

Over three consecutive years (2023–2025), multiple Elliott Wave analyses focused not on prediction, but on path, structure, and higher-degree context.

There was no news catalyst driving this awareness — only wave structure guiding expectations.

The takeaway is simple:

Markets reward those who study structure early, not those who chase headlines late.


11-NOV-2023

https://ewavesjournal.blogspot.com/2023/11/xagusd-silver-si-analysis-november-2023.html
22.65 to 60$

XAGUSD / SILVER / SI Analysis 20-Sep-2024: BIGGER PICTURE

https://ewavesjournal.blogspot.com/2024/10/silver-xagusd-analysis-01-oct-2024.html
43.05 to 73.67 till now.

LTP 43.05
Supports: 35.97/28.91/17.55/11.63
As long as the above supports hold, we can see 47.3-50.00 Next.
Further, 54.34, 60.43, 65.73, 72.64, 84.1, 95.50, 129

SILVER (XAGUSD) – Weekly Elliott Wave Analysis - DEC 2025
https://ewavesjournal.blogspot.com/2025/12/silver-xagusd-weekly-elliott-wave.html
Wave 5 First Zone $72 – $83
Extended Wave 5 Zone $86 – $94.55



Elliott Wave Structure

From the base, silver has developed a clean impulsive sequence:

  • Wave (1): Initial breakout from the base

  • Wave (2): Shallow pullback, holding above key support — a strength signal

  • Wave (3): Strong expansion leg, supported by momentum

  • Wave (4): Currently unfolding as a shallow, time-based consolidation

  • Wave (5): Projected higher toward the upper channel and Fibonacci extension zone

The preferred count assumes Wave (3) is complete and Wave (4) is in progress. Importantly, this correction is unfolding more through time than price, which is typical of strong trends.

An alternate count is also considered, where the current structure could still be part of an extended Wave (3), followed by a slightly deeper Wave (4). However, this alternate scenario does not negate the bullish structure — it only allows for extended consolidation before continuation.

Channel & Price Structure

Price continues to respect a multi-parallel rising channel:

  • Wave (2) and Wave (4) align well with the lower channel

  • Wave (3) reacts near the upper boundary

  • Current price remains comfortably within the channel

This behavior supports the view that silver is consolidating within trend rather than transitioning into a reversal phase.

Momentum (RSI) Perspective

RSI remains in a bullish regime, holding above the mid-zone and cooling gradually after the prior expansion. There is no meaningful bearish divergence against price, suggesting that momentum is being reset rather than exhausted.

This momentum behavior aligns better with a Wave (4) consolidation than with a completed market top.

Key Conditions to Watch

The bullish structure remains valid as long as:

  • Price stays within the rising channel

  • Key support near 62.85 is respected

  • No overlap occurs into Wave (1) territory

Only a decisive break below channel support, combined with a momentum regime shift, would force a reassessment.

Conclusion

Silver is not showing signs of distribution or trend failure. Both the primary and alternate Elliott counts point toward continuation higher once the current consolidation phase completes. Until structure is proven otherwise, intraday volatility should be treated as noise rather than signal.

Trend remains constructive. Structure remains the guide.

(Educational analysis only. Not a trading recommendation.)



-----------------------

EXTRA INFORMATION:

🌊 SCENARIO 1 — MAIN COUNT (HIGHER PROBABILITY ⭐)

Structure

  • Wave 1 → 2 → 3 completed cleanly

  • Wave 4 is unfolding as a shallow, channel-contained correction

  • Wave 5 projected toward the upper channel / fib cluster

Why this is the preferred count

  • Wave (3) shows proper extension

  • Wave (4) is:

    • Sideways

    • Time-consuming

    • Non-overlapping

  • RSI cooling without losing bullish regime

👉 This is textbook impulsive behavior.

Probability: HIGH

🌊 SCENARIO 2 — ALTERNATE COUNT (VALID, BUT LOWER PROBABILITY)

What the alternate suggests

  • Current move labeled as alt 3

  • Followed by a slightly deeper alt 4

  • Then continuation higher

Why this is still acceptable

  • Still respects the rising channel

  • No impulsive rules violated

  • Allows for extended consolidation

Why it’s lower probability

  • Momentum structure already fits a completed Wave (3)

  • RSI behavior aligns better with Wave (4) cooling, not an unfinished Wave (3)

Probability: MEDIUM

📉 RSI CONFIRMATION (KEY DECIDER)

RSI is doing something very important:

  • Holding above 60

  • Cooling via range contraction

  • No bearish divergence

This behavior strongly supports:

Wave (4) consolidation rather than a re-labeling of Wave (3)

RSI is therefore confirming the main count.


(Educational analysis only. Not a trading recommendation.)

https://in.tradingview.com/chart/XAGUSD/fQQUNExA-XAGUSD-Silver-Impulsive-Structure-Intact/


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