Silver and the Illusion of the “Blow-Off Top”: A Structural Perspective

 

Introduction

Every major rally in Silver revives the same discussion:

“This looks like 1980.”
“This looks like 2011.”
“It must be a blow-off top.”

This article explains why price similarity without structural context is misleading, and what actually matters at market extremes.

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Section 1: The Problem with Historical Price Anchoring

• 1980 and 2011 are visually dramatic

• But:

  • They occurred at different degrees

  • Under different macro and structural conditions

• Price alone does not define a top — structure does

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Section 2: What the Monthly Structure Shows

• Silver has respected a rising channel for decades

• Long consolidations = energy storage

• Breakouts from such bases rarely end immediately

• The recent move cleared a multi-decade resistance zone

This is not exhaustion — this is expansion.

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Section 3: Momentum Is Not a Timing Tool

• High RSI ≠ immediate reversal

• In impulsive regimes:

  • RSI stays elevated for extended periods

• Tops form when:

  • Momentum diverges

  • Structure breaks

  • Follow-through confirms

None of these are confirmed yet.

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Section 4: What Would Actually Signal a Major Top

Watch for:

• Clear 5-wave completion at higher degree

• Monthly bearish divergence

• Breakdown of rising channel

• Impulsive decline, not overlap

Until then:

Volatility ≠ reversal

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Conclusion

Silver is not topping because it “looks high.”
Markets turn when structure ends, not when fear begins.

Structure remains intact.

Educational view | Structure-based analysis | No predictions

https://in.tradingview.com/chart/XAGUSD/U0fSPwao-Silver-Why-Historical-Highs-Alone-Don-t-Define-Market-Tops/

Silver #ElliottWave #MarketStructure #Commodities #TechnicalAnalysis #XAGUSD