NIFTY 50: Decision Time – Breakout or Retest? (Roadmap)

NIFTY Timeframe: Daily (1D)

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Key Observations

1. Wave Structure

• The index is trading strictly within a Rising Parallel Channel, respecting the boundaries perfectly.

• We are currently in the Blue Wave (3) sequence, which is the primary growth phase.

• Internally, the market is pausing. It is deciding whether to launch the explosive Green Wave 3 immediately or retest the Green Wave 2 base first.

2. Key Resistance Zones

• 26,278 (Red Horizontal Line): This is the "Roof." The market has struggled to close above this level. A Daily Close above this confirms the next rally.

• 27,843 (Channel Top): Once 26,278 breaks, this is the first magnetic target.

3. Key Support Zones

• 24,977 (Red Trendline): This is the "Floor." The channel support aligns perfectly here.

• 24,655: The ultimate invalidation level for the short-term bullish view. As long as we hold this, the trend is Up.

4. RSI and Momentum

• RSI (Daily): Currently neutral (around 50). This is healthy. It indicates the market has "cooled off" from the previous rally and is gathering energy for the next move without being overbought.

5. My Final View (Straightforward & Simple) The trend is Bullish but currently stuck in a "Waiting Room."

• Action: Do NOT chase in the middle.

• Buy Strategy: Wait for a dip near 25,000 (Low Risk) OR a confirmed breakout above 26,278 (High Momentum).

• Targets: 27,840 ➔ 30,720.

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Update (Dec 18):
Nifty remains below trendline resistance. Until a daily close above 26278–26326, corrective pressure toward 25500–25300 cannot be ruled out. Primary trend remains intact, but patience is required.

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Update (Dec 20):

No structural change. Consolidation within trend continues. Will update only if key levels are violated.

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Update (Dec 22)

NIFTY has broken above the previous swing high and is holding above the breakout zone.

Price is advancing within a rising channel, and recent gaps appear to be trend-continuation gaps rather than exhaustion signals.

Momentum remains constructive, with RSI holding in a neutral-positive range and no divergence visible at this stage.

The broader structure continues to favor upside as long as price remains above the highlighted support band and trendline.

An alternate corrective scenario (Alt 2) has been marked for risk awareness, but it remains a low-probability path unless key supports are violated.

No prediction — structure and levels will guide the next move.

Structure intact. Levels decide.

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Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only. Trade at your own risk.

https://in.tradingview.com/chart/NIFTY/t4FOx1Fe-NIFTY-50-Decision-Time-Breakout-or-Retest-Roadmap/

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