Silver (XAGUSD) Monthly Elliott Wave Analysis: Bigger Picture with Key Levels

 

Introduction

Silver (XAGUSD) is best analysed through long-term price structure, not short-term volatility or headlines.
This monthly Elliott Wave analysis focuses on the bigger picture, identifying where Silver stands within its long-term cycle and outlining key structural levels for awareness.

This study is based purely on price behaviour, Elliott Wave structure, Fibonacci alignment, and momentum — not news or fundamentals.

---

Bigger Picture Structure (Monthly)

Silver appears to be progressing through Wave III of a higher degree, with internal Wave (3) currently developing.

This phase is typically characterised by:

• Strong directional movement

• Periodic sharp corrections

• Extended momentum phases that often last longer than expected

The broader structure remains constructive and intact.

---

Key Structural Levels (Context Only)

These levels are reference points, not buy/sell signals.

🔹 Primary Structural Support

• ~30.13

  • Major base and polarity zone

  • Long-term structure remains valid above this level

---

🔹 Major Breakout / Polarity Zone

• ~49.80

  • Former resistance, now a key structural reference

  • Acts as an important trend-defining level

---

🔹 Trend Health

• Lower boundary of the rising monthly channel

  • Normal area for pullbacks during Wave III

  • Tests here do not imply trend failure

---

🔹 Invalidation (Long-Term)

• Sustained monthly close below the rising channel

  • Would require a reassessment of the Wave III thesis

Until then, the primary bullish structure remains intact.

---

Resistance: How to Interpret It Safely

In higher-degree Wave III, resistance should be viewed as structural pause / reaction zones, not fixed ceilings.

• Upper Fibonacci extensions mark areas where:

  • Momentum may cool

  • Consolidation or corrections may occur

• These zones are not targets and should not be used for prediction

Structure takes priority over price projection.

---

Fibonacci Alignment (Big Picture)

• 1.618 (~47–49): Achieved (major breakout zone)

• 2.618 (~65–66): Current reaction area

• 3.77 (~87) & 4.236 (~95): Higher structural pause zones

• 6.1 (~130): Very long-term structural extension (not near-term)

Fibonacci levels here provide context, not timing.

---

RSI Behaviour (Monthly)

• RSI is elevated, which is normal during higher-degree Wave III

• No major bearish divergence is visible

• Momentum supports continuation, with expected cooling phases

This behaviour is consistent with a developing impulsive phase, not exhaustion.

---

Summary

• Silver is in higher-degree Wave III

• Internal Wave (3) is developing

• 30.13 is key long-term structural support

• 49.80 is a major polarity level

• Trend remains valid while price holds above the rising monthly channel

• Corrections are part of the process, not trend failure

---

Disclaimer

This analysis is for educational purposes only. It reflects a technical perspective based on Elliott Wave theory and should not be considered financial advice.

Silver Elliott Wave Analysis

XAGUSD Monthly Outlook

Silver Long Term Structure

Silver Wave III Analysis

Silver Market Structure

#Silver

#XAGUSD

#ElliottWave

#MarketStructure

#LongTermTrends

#Commodities

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XAGUSD/2Nq2uIgN-SILVER-XAGUSD-Monthly-Elliott-Wave-Bigger-Picture/