XTIUSD / WTI CRUDE, MCX CRUDE: Wave C in Motion – Next Stop $50 / ₹4,700 and Below?

XTIUSD (US Oil Spot) Timeframe: Weekly (1W)

Key Observations

1. Wave Structure

• The market is deep within a massive A-B-C Correction following the Grand Super Cycle peak.

• We are currently in Wave C (the final downward leg). This wave is active and is dragging prices toward the long-term trendline support.

• The failure to break above the recent highs confirmed the start of this bearish sequence.

2. Key Resistance Zones

• $68.55 (Red Line): This is the "Lid." As long as the price stays below this level, the Bears are in total control.

• $62.30: Immediate resistance. Any bounce to this level is likely a selling opportunity.

3. Key Support Zones

• $50.00 - $52.00 (Blue Trendline): This is the "Alt Bottom" target. The rising trendline intersects here, making it a high-probability reversal zone.

• $44.55 (Orange Line): The ultimate structural floor.

4. RSI and Momentum

• RSI (Weekly): Trading below 40. This confirms weak momentum with no signs of bullish divergence yet. The path of least resistance remains down.

5. My Final View (Straightforward & Simple) The trend is Bearish.

• Action: Avoid aggressive Longs. The "knife" is still falling.

• Strategy: Sell on rises near $60-$62.

• Target: We expect a slow grind down to test the $50.00 psychological mark before a meaningful bottom is formed.

 MCX CRUDE: Wave C in Motion – Target ₹4,700 and Below 

(MCX Crude Oil Futures) Timeframe: Weekly (1W)

Key Observations

1. Wave Structure

• Following the massive Super Cycle peak, Crude Oil is locked in an A-B-C Correction.

• Wave A and Wave B are complete. We are currently navigating Wave C, which is historically the "flush out" move.

• The breakdown from the recent consolidation confirms the bearish grip.

2. Key Resistance Zones

• ₹5,681 (Red Line): This is the immediate "Ceiling." The Bears are defending this level. Any rise to this level is a selling opportunity.

• ₹6,621: The major trend reversal point (Trendline Resistance).

3. Key Support & Targets

• ₹4,703 (Alt Bottom): The first logical target where the "Blue Trendline" offers support.

• ₹3,501 - ₹4,337 (Orange Box): This is the Final Destination for Wave C. This is where the Smart Money will enter for the next multi-year rally.

4. RSI and Momentum

• RSI (Weekly): Trending at 42.50, well below the 50 neutral mark. This indicates that sellers are in control and the bottom is not yet in.

5. My Final View The trend is Bearish.

• Action: Sell on Rise.

• Warning: Do not catch the falling knife at ₹5,000. Wait for the deeper targets near ₹4,700 to book profit on shorts.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only. Trade at your own risk.

https://in.tradingview.com/chart/XTIUSD/eaH7oasg-WTI-CRUDE-Wave-C-in-Motion-Next-Stop-50/

https://in.tradingview.com/chart/CRUDEOIL1!/DJm8i4U2-MCX-CRUDE-Wave-C-in-Motion-Target-4-700-and-Below/

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