The US Dollar Index (DXY) appears to be completing a major corrective (A-B-C) structure after topping around 114.78, which is potentially the Wave ⑤ top of a long-term cycle. The index has retraced significantly and is now testing an important support zone that will determine the next long-term direction.
📍 Key Technical Highlights
🔹 Wave ⑤ Top: Formed near 114.78
🔹 Completed Wave A & B, currently in Wave C decline
🔹 Price retesting long-term trendline and Fib support area
🔹 Possible Wave (4) bottom in progress – confirmation pending
📈 Key Resistance Levels
| Level | Description |
|---|---|
| 99.55 | Immediate rejection zone |
| 102.00 | Major breakout confirmation |
| 110.19 | Strong structural resistance |
| 114.78 | Previous cycle high |
📉 Key Support / C-Wave Target Zone
| Support Range | Notes |
|---|---|
| 91.55 – 90.65 | Near-term support |
| 87.64 | Structural support |
| 83.60 – 81.55 | High-probability Wave C completion zone |
| 75.77 – 70.69 | Extreme correction scenario |
🔍 RSI Observation
-
RSI forming bullish divergence
-
Testing long-term support trend from 2008-2011 lows
-
Indicates downtrend exhaustion signs, but needs confirmation
Scenario Outlook
🟥 Bearish Continuation Preferred
As long as 99.55 – 102.00 holds as resistance,
➡️ Probability favors continuation lower into 83–81 zone to complete Wave II
🟩 Bullish Breakout Invalidates
A monthly close above 102.00
➡️ Could signal trend reversal targeting:
-
110.19
-
122.21
-
129.50
-
even 152+ in Wave III
Conclusion
📌 Long-term correction likely not finished
📌 Major bottom expected in 83–81 region unless 102 breaks
📌 Wave II final stage approaching – watch price action closely
Disclaimer
Elliott Wave analysis for educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Trade with proper risk management.
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