US Dollar Index (DXY / USDX) – Long-Term Structure & Macro Context

 

Introduction

The US Dollar Index (DXY) plays a central role in shaping global liquidity, commodity cycles, and risk sentiment.
This analysis focuses on the long-term structural framework of the Dollar and is intended strictly for macro and inter-market context, not for FX trading or execution.

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Key Observations

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1. Wave Structure (Structural Transition Phase)

The Grand Super Cycle peak near 114.78 marked a major long-term resistance zone. Since that high, price behaviour suggests the Dollar has transitioned into a broader corrective regime, consistent with an A-B-C type structure.

The initial decline (Wave A) and subsequent relief rally (Wave B) appear mature. The current price action exhibits characteristics of a developing Wave C, though confirmation depends on sustained acceptance below key structural supports.

This phase reflects trend digestion rather than a sudden collapse.

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2. Key Resistance Zones (The Ceiling)

105.00 – 107.00 remains the dominant lower-high resistance zone.
As long as price remains below this band, the broader bias stays corrective / bearish.

The rejection and breakdown from recent consolidation further indicate that upside strength is limited at this stage.

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3. Key Support & Reference Zones (The Floor)

• 96.73 – Immediate structural support within the corrective channel

• 91.55 – Intermediate psychological and structural support

• 87.55 – 83.64 – Major corrective reference zone, aligned with long-term trendline support

This lower zone represents a high-importance area where the correction could mature, not a guaranteed destination.

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4. RSI & Momentum Perspective

Monthly RSI has slipped below the neutral 50 zone, confirming loss of long-term upside momentum.
The absence of bullish divergence suggests downside pressure may persist, though momentum should be monitored closely as price approaches major support regions.

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5. Final View (Macro & Inter-Market Context)

The US Dollar Index appears to be entering a medium- to long-term corrective phase following an extended secular advance. While the broader structural framework remains intact, upside progress is likely to remain uneven and selective.

Historically, sustained Dollar weakness acts as a tailwind for commodities and selective risk assets. DXY should therefore be used as a confirmation tool rather than a standalone directional instrument.

If the corrective structure continues to unfold, the 87–84 region becomes a logical medium-term reference zone over the coming quarters.

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Inter-Market Implication

• Supportive for Gold & Silver

• Constructive for Copper & Base Metals

• Positive confirmation for risk assets, when aligned with structure

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Disclaimer

This analysis is shared strictly for educational and macro-advisory purposes.
It does not constitute FX trading advice, execution guidance, or investment recommendations.

https://in.tradingview.com/chart/DXY/sdt04I32-US-Dollar-Index-DXY-USDX-Long-Term-Structure-Macro-Conte/

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